3428 Fortune Dr · Allegany, NY 14706

$209,000

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,556 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 86 Days on market

Built 1959 0.36 ac lot $134/sqft · 12% below area Est $237k · 12% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +12.8/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Schools +5.2/10.0
• Cash flow +3.7/30.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +0.7/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Charming three-bedroom ranch offering comfort, space, and a peaceful setting. The spacious eat-in kitchen flows seamlessly into a cozy sitting area with gas fireplace—perfect for relaxing or entertaining. Both the living and dining rooms feature beautiful hardwood flooring, adding warmth and character throughout. Enjoy the convenience of first-floor laundry and a bright sunroom that overlooks the private, tree-lined backyard. The outdoor space provides a true country feel, where deer can often be seen roaming year-round. Additional highlights include a one-car attached garage, plus a second detached garage with electric—ideal for a workshop, hobby space, or extra storage—along with a separate shed for all your gardening needs.

Key facts

• Tree lined property
• Private backyard
• Eat in kitchen

Tags

• EAT IN KITCHEN
• COZY SITTING AREA
• HARDWOOD FLOORS
• PRIVATE BACKYARD
• SUNROOM
• TREE LINED PROPERTY

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $209k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-612 ($-7k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $101k (51.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $120k (42.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $101k (51.7% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#395 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: health & safety C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Allegany-Limestone Central School District (rural): math 55% / reading 67% proficiency, ranked #233 of 590 in NY (top 40%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 47 active listings in the ZIP; 128 units permitted in Cattaraugus County in 2024 (21 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $22k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $21k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Cattaraugus County population projected at -28% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$36k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 86 days — a 6% lower offer ($196k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $131k; list at $209k implies a 59% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1959 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $100,855 (51.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 86 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 52% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1959 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.57% ✗
• Cap rate: 2.78%
• Cash-on-cash: -12.55%
• DSCR: 0.44
• GRM: 14.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $236,751
• List price: $209,000
• Delta: -11.72%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 10 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
118 N 3rd St	0.46mi	3/1.5	1,540 (-1%)	8mo	$190,000	$123	70
157 N 2nd St	0.57mi	3/1.5	1,618 (+4%)	2mo	$175,000	$108	66
108 Jefferson Ave	0.41mi	4/1.5 (+1)	1,566 (+1%)	15mo	$212,000	$135	62
80 Sherwood Dr	0.42mi	3/2.5	1,512 (-3%)	14mo	$220,500	$146	60
17 Oak St	0.58mi	3/2.0	1,650 (+6%)	7mo	$290,000	$176	55
129 N 5th St	0.33mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,458 (-6%)	16mo	$174,000	$119	54
89 N 1st St	0.66mi	3/1.5	1,500 (-4%)	21mo	$120,000	$80	46
17 N 6th St	0.60mi	3/2.0	1,377 (-12%)	7mo	$95,000	$69	45
68 N 4th St	0.49mi	3/1.5	1,404 (-10%)	23mo	$255,000	$182	42
47 N 3rd St	0.55mi	3/2.0	1,384 (-11%)	22mo	$170,000	$123	36

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 15.5%
• Equity multiple: 2.28×
• Total profit: $74,924
• Equity at exit: $188,284

10-year hold

• IRR: 15.1%
• Equity multiple: 5.30×
• Total profit: $251,476
• Equity at exit: $406,041

Cash invested: $58,520 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 14706

• Home prices YoY: 10.5%
• Active inventory: 47
• Price-to-rent: 14.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,197 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,096
• Tax from tax record: −$375 /mo · $4,498/yr
• Insurance: −$87
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$251
• Net cashflow: $-612

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,972

Max offer price $100,855

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-494	-5% $-553	+0% $-612	+5% $-671	+10% $-730
Rent	-10% $-707	-5% $-659	+0% $-612	+5% $-565	+10% $-518
Rate	-1.0pp $-507	-0.5pp $-559	base $-612	+0.5pp $-666	+1.0pp $-721

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $52,250
• Closing costs: $6,270
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $209,000 Active 86 DOM
2. 2026-06-21
   days on market $209,000 Active 85 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $209,000 Active 83 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $209,000 Active 82 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $209,000 Active 81 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $209,000 Active 80 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $209,000 Active 78 DOM
8. 2026-06-12
   pricedays on market $209,000 Active 77 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $229,900 Active 74 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $229,900 Active 73 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $229,900 Active 72 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $229,900 Active 71 DOM
13. 2026-06-04
    days on market $229,900 Active 68 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $229,900 Active 67 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $229,900 Active 66 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $229,900 Active 65 DOM
17. 2026-04-09
    price $229,900 754-char remark

    Show marketing remark (754 chars)

    Charming three-bedroom ranch offering comfort, space, and a peaceful setting. The spacious eat-in kitchen flows seamlessly into a cozy sitting area with gas fireplace—perfect for relaxing or entertaining. Both the living and dining rooms feature beautiful hardwood flooring, adding warmth and character throughout. Enjoy the convenience of first-floor laundry and a bright sunroom that overlooks the private, tree-lined backyard. The outdoor space provides a true country feel, where deer can often be seen roaming year-round. Additional highlights include a one-car attached garage, plus a second detached garage with electric—ideal for a workshop, hobby space, or extra storage—along with a separate shed for all your gardening needs.

18. 2026-03-27
    listed $249,000 Active 754-char remark

    Show marketing remark (754 chars)

    Charming three-bedroom ranch offering comfort, space, and a peaceful setting. The spacious eat-in kitchen flows seamlessly into a cozy sitting area with gas fireplace—perfect for relaxing or entertaining. Both the living and dining rooms feature beautiful hardwood flooring, adding warmth and character throughout. Enjoy the convenience of first-floor laundry and a bright sunroom that overlooks the private, tree-lined backyard. The outdoor space provides a true country feel, where deer can often be seen roaming year-round. Additional highlights include a one-car attached garage, plus a second detached garage with electric—ideal for a workshop, hobby space, or extra storage—along with a separate shed for all your gardening needs.

19. 2003-05-02
    soldstatus $131,100

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $4,498 · $375/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,498 · $375/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥90°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,365
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,707
• − Property taxes: −$4,498
• − Insurance: −$1,045
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,149
• − Management: −$1,149
• − Depreciation: −$6,080
• Taxable loss: −$11,263
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,703
• After-tax cash flow: $-4,643/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Allegany-Limestone Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3600015
• Math proficiency: 55% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 67% ▲ 17.00%
• Median HH income: $47,850
• Composite: 51.66/100
• National rank: #1696
• State rank: #233 of 590 in NY

Livability — Allegany

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #395
• US rank: #6843

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 6,118

Population outlook (Cattaraugus County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 71,623 people
• By 2030: 67,751 · -5.4%
• By 2040: 59,488 · -16.9%
• By 2050: 51,601 · -28.0%
• By 2075: 35,025 · -51.1%
• By 2100: 21,243 · -70.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (88%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 88% Two or more races 5% Black 3% Native American 2% Asian 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 7% Slovak 3% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Cattaraugus

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+32.8) · D 33.6% · R 66.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -22.2pp toward R · 2008: -10.6pp · 2024: -32.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+32.8 2020: R+29.5 2016: R+34.4 2012: R+13.4 2008: R+10.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 24.72%
• Current HPI: 259.9141
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+75.4% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-09 Price Changed $229,900 UNYREIS
• 2026-03-27 Listed $249,000 UNYREIS
• 2003-05-02 Sold (Public Records) $131,100 Public Records

Property tax history

+1.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,498 · +0.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.