201 Avenue D

Converse, TX 78109

$165,000D

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,388 sqft · Built 1966 · SingleFamily · Active · 139 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,481/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$865
• Tax + insurance: −$429
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$311
• Net cashflow: $-124/mo
• Annual: $-1,490/yr
• Cap rate: 5.39%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.23%
• DSCR: 0.86
• 1% rule: 0.90%
• Cash to close: $46,200

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $165k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-124 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $143k (13.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $148k (10.3% below list).
• It's been on market 139 days — a 12% lower offer ($145k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $143k (13.3% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#649 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, employment B; Watch: crime C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Judson ISD (suburban): math 21% / reading 33% proficiency, ranked #660 of 826 in TX (top 80%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Converse El (math 21% / reading 30%, grade F, #2,982 of 4,322 statewide, top 70%, 604 students, 63% FRL); Judson Middle (math 21% / reading 34%, grade F, #1,156 of 1,662 statewide, top 71%, 1,259 students, 70% FRL); Judson H S (math 19% / reading 38%, grade F, #1,157 of 1,632 statewide, top 72%, 2,666 students, 62% FRL).
• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.6% of price.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.1%/yr); 1219 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 8,308 units permitted in Bexar County in 2024 (2,506 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Bexar County population projected at +50% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $20k (11%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 5.4% vs local median 4.4% in Converse — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 139 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 13% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1966 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.