124 Mill Rd

Tonkawa, OK 74653

$135,000F

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,058 sqft · Built 1976 · SingleFamily · Pending · 85 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,027/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$708
• Tax + insurance: −$104
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$216
• Net cashflow: $-1/mo
• Annual: $-13/yr
• Cap rate: 6.28%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.03%
• DSCR: 1.00
• 1% rule: 0.76%
• Cash to close: $37,800

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $135k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-1 ($-13/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $135k (0.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $103k (23.9% below list).
• It's been on market 85 days — a 6% lower offer ($127k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $103k (23.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-1.3%/yr); year-one equity from $933 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#99 in OK) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Tonkawa (town): math 16% / reading 22% proficiency, ranked #179 of 270 in OK (top 66%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Tonkawa Es (math 22% / reading 27%, grade F, #354 of 845 statewide, top 47%, 462 students, 0% FRL); Tonkawa Ms (math 8% / reading 12%, grade F, #288 of 345 statewide, top 86%, 176 students, 0% FRL); Tonkawa Hs (math 24% / reading 34%, grade F, #96 of 447 statewide, top 26%, 216 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools average 0% FRL vs 53% district-wide (53 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Market conditions: 17 active listings in the ZIP; 11 units permitted in Kay County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Kay County population projected at -12% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 85 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 24% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1976 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.