124 Mill Rd · Tonkawa, OK 74653

$135,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,058 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 85 Days on market

Built 1976 8,580 sqft lot Est $106k · 28% over

---

Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.3/30.0
• Appreciation +4.4/10.0
• DSCR +4.0/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• 1% rule +2.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.6/10.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to this beautifully updated home nestled on a quiet dead-end street in Tonkawa—the perfect blend of comfort, privacy, and modern upgrades. Thoughtfully improved within the last five years, this home features new windows, a new roof, and a new hot water tank, offering peace of mind for years to come. Step inside to find stylish vinyl flooring throughout, enhanced by recessed lighting that creates a bright, inviting atmosphere. The kitchen shines with an updated backsplash, adding a fresh, contemporary touch that’s perfect for everyday living and entertaining alike. Outside, enjoy a fully fenced yard ideal for pets, play, or relaxing evenings, along with the convenience of

Key facts

• Vinyl flooring
• New hot water tank
• Updated home

Tags

• UPDATED HOME
• NEW WINDOWS
• NEW ROOF
• NEW HOT WATER TANK
• VINYL FLOORING
• RECESSED LIGHTING

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Lot dimensions approximately 132 x 65; Zoning: Other

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage with 2 garage spaces; Garage door opener
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Natural gas available
• Home design: Single family residence (Residential property)
• Construction: Brick veneer construction
• Exterior features: Composition roof

Interior

• Kitchen: Range
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central air conditioning; Forced air heating; Natural gas heating
• Interior features: Range

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $135k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-1 ($-13/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $135k (0.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $103k (23.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $103k (23.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#99 in OK) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Tonkawa (town): math 16% / reading 22% proficiency, ranked #179 of 270 in OK (top 66%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Tonkawa Es (math 22% / reading 27%, grade F, #354 of 845 statewide, top 47%, 462 students, 0% FRL); Tonkawa Ms (math 8% / reading 12%, grade F, #288 of 345 statewide, top 86%, 176 students, 0% FRL); Tonkawa Hs (math 24% / reading 34%, grade F, #96 of 447 statewide, top 26%, 216 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools average 0% FRL vs 53% district-wide (53 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Market conditions: 17 active listings in the ZIP; 11 units permitted in Kay County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-1.3%/yr); year-one equity from $933 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Kay County population projected at -12% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 85 days — a 6% lower offer ($127k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $102,683 (23.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 85 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 24% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1976 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.76% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.28%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.03%
• DSCR: 1.00
• GRM: 11.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $105,800
• Comps found: 4

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
908 N 10th	0.21mi	3/1.0	1,053 (-0%)	3mo	$105,000	$100	87
612 N 9th St	0.44mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,008 (-5%)	16mo	$84,694	$84	54
304 N 12th St	0.71mi	3/2.0	972 (-8%)	11mo	$145,000	$149	40
406 N 6th St	0.69mi	2/1.0 (-1)	900 (-15%)	4mo	$16,000	$18	34

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-1.29% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -7.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.68×
• Total profit: $-12,041
• Equity at exit: $30,728

10-year hold

• IRR: -0.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.96×
• Total profit: $-1,595
• Equity at exit: $30,707

Cash invested: $37,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Oklahoma: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+20
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day notice; strongly landlord-favorable.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 74653

• Home prices YoY: -0.5%
• Active inventory: 17
• Price-to-rent: 11.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,027 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$708
• Tax from tax record: −$48 /mo · $577/yr
• Insurance: −$56
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$216
• Net cashflow: $-1

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,028

Max offer price $134,808

Occupancy floor 95%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $75	-5% $37	+0% $-1	+5% $-39	+10% $-78
Rent	-10% $-82	-5% $-42	+0% $-1	+5% $39	+10% $80
Rate	-1.0pp $67	-0.5pp $33	base $-1	+0.5pp $-36	+1.0pp $-72

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $33,750
• Closing costs: $4,050
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 5 events

1. 2026-05-17
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-02
   price $135,000
3. 2026-02-21
   listed $139,000 Active
4. 2025-03-03
   soldstatus $123,000
5. 2004-07-23
   soldstatus $48,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast OK · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $577 · $48/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,215 · $101/mo
• Expected delta: +$638/yr (+$53/mo · 110.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 2% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $12,322
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,562
• − Property taxes: −$577
• − Insurance: −$675
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$986
• − Management: −$986
• − Depreciation: −$3,927
• Taxable loss: −$2,391
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$574
• After-tax cash flow: $561/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Tonkawa
• NCES district ID: 4030120
• Math proficiency: 16% ▼ -17.00%
• Reading proficiency: 22% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $42,371
• Composite: 16.33/100
• National rank: #9207
• State rank: #179 of 270 in OK

Livability — Tonkawa

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #99
• US rank: #11096

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C+ Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Tonkawa, OK
• City population: 3,689
• Population (ZIP): 3,689

Population outlook (Kay County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 43,389 people
• By 2030: 42,222 · -2.7%
• By 2040: 40,108 · -7.6%
• By 2050: 38,231 · -11.9%
• By 2075: 34,119 · -21.4%
• By 2100: 28,526 · -34.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (70%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 70% Two or more races 12% Native American 11% Hispanic / Latino 8%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 7%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Slovak 2% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 4%

Political lean MEDSL · Kay

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+49.4) · D 24.4% · R 73.8% · Other 1.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.8pp toward R · 2008: -41.6pp · 2024: -49.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+49.4 2020: R+51.0 2016: R+50.2 2012: R+42.6 2008: R+41.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -1.29%
• Current HPI: 241.0167
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.55%
• F500 in state: 6

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in OK)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	3	$48B

Price history

+181.2% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-17 Pending — SBOR
• 2026-04-02 Price Changed $135,000 SBOR
• 2026-02-21 Listed $139,000 SBOR
• 2025-03-03 Sold (Public Records) $123,000 Public Records
• 2004-07-23 Sold (Public Records) $48,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $577 · +8.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.