111 Dunbar St

Refugio, TX 78377

$104,900C+

4 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,612 sqft · Built 1950 · SingleFamily · Active · 47 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,277/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$550
• Tax + insurance: −$327
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$268
• Net cashflow: $132/mo
• Annual: $1,587/yr
• Cap rate: 7.81%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.40%
• DSCR: 1.24
• 1% rule: 1.22%
• Cash to close: $29,372

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $105k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $132 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $105k).
• It's been on market 47 days — a 3% lower offer ($102k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $102k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-2.2%/yr); year-one equity from $725 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#255 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Refugio ISD (town): math 38% / reading 38% proficiency, ranked #455 of 826 in TX (top 55%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 63% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Refugio El (math 37% / reading 37%, grade F, #1,769 of 4,322 statewide, top 44%, 299 students, 69% FRL); Refugio J H (math 32% / reading 42%, grade F, #756 of 1,662 statewide, top 47%, 139 students, 68% FRL); Refugio H S (math 62% / reading 34%, grade D, #569 of 1,632 statewide, top 35%, 216 students, 67% FRL) — zoned schools at 68% FRL track the district average.
• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.2% of price; built in 1950 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 37 active listings in the ZIP; 24 units permitted in Refugio County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Refugio County population projected at +9% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 5 sale attempts since 21y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $15k (13%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 47 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1950 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.