111 Dunbar St · Refugio, TX 78377

$104,900

4 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,612 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 47 Days on market

Built 1950 7,035 sqft lot $65/sqft · 15% below area Est $175k · 40% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +20.2/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +7.2/10.0
• DSCR +6.4/10.0
• Appreciation +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Schools +3.2/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Refugio - Rambling family home with detached one bedroom garage apt. Main house has 2 bedrooms downstairs, 2 bedrooms upstairs. Large kitchen, family room. Needs some TLC but could be a good home for a large family. Sold as is only.

Key facts

• Workshop area
• 7,035 sq ft lot
• Garage

Tags

• SEPARATE APARTMENT SPACE
• WORKSHOP AREA

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Short-term rentals allowed

Exterior

• Parking: Garage; Carport; 1 covered parking space; 1 garage space
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Sewer available; Water available
• Home design: 2-story home; Vinyl siding and wood siding exterior; Shingle roof; Pillar/Post/Pier foundation
• Construction: Built with vinyl and wood siding; Shingle roof; Pillar/Post/Pier foundation
• Exterior features: Storage; Greenhouse; Workshop; Chain-link fencing; Interior lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Gas oven; Gas range
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on the main level
• Flooring: Laminate flooring; Vinyl flooring
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Primary bedroom located on the downstairs level; Paneling/Wainscoting; Split bedroom layout
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Dryer hookup

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $105k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $132 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $105k).
• Recommended offer: $102k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#255 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Refugio ISD (town): math 38% / reading 38% proficiency, ranked #455 of 826 in TX (top 55%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 63% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Refugio El (math 37% / reading 37%, grade F, #1,769 of 4,322 statewide, top 44%, 299 students, 69% FRL); Refugio J H (math 32% / reading 42%, grade F, #756 of 1,662 statewide, top 47%, 139 students, 68% FRL); Refugio H S (math 62% / reading 34%, grade D, #569 of 1,632 statewide, top 35%, 216 students, 67% FRL) — zoned schools at 68% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 37 active listings in the ZIP; 24 units permitted in Refugio County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-2.2%/yr); year-one equity from $725 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Refugio County population projected at +9% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 47 days — a 3% lower offer ($102k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 21y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $15k (13%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.2% of price; built in 1950 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $101,753 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 47 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1950 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.22% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.81%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.40%
• DSCR: 1.24
• GRM: 6.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $174,811
• List price: $104,900
• Delta: -39.99%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 12 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
402 W Depot St	0.14mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,713 (+6%)	12mo	$205,000	$120	64
207 W Vance	0.53mi	4/2.0	1,392 (-14%)	9mo	$115,000	$83	41

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-2.2% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -4.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.83×
• Total profit: $-4,895
• Equity at exit: $19,437

10-year hold

• IRR: 4.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.35×
• Total profit: $10,191
• Equity at exit: $15,726

Cash invested: $29,372 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78377

• Home prices YoY: -1.5%
• Active inventory: 37
• Price-to-rent: 6.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,277 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$550
• Tax from tax record: −$283 /mo · $3,397/yr
• Insurance: −$44
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$268
• Net cashflow: $132

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,110

Max offer price $104,900

Occupancy floor 85%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $192	-5% $162	+0% $132	+5% $103	+10% $73
Rent	-10% $31	-5% $82	+0% $132	+5% $183	+10% $233
Rate	-1.0pp $185	-0.5pp $159	base $132	+0.5pp $105	+1.0pp $77

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $26,225
• Closing costs: $3,147
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 37 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $104,900 Active 47 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   days on market $104,900 Active 45 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $104,900 Active 44 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $104,900 Active 43 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $104,900 Active 42 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   pricedays on market $104,900 Active 41 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $114,900 Active 39 DOM
8. 2026-06-12
   days on market $114,900 Active 38 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $114,900 Active 35 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $114,900 Active 34 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $114,900 Active 33 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $114,900 Active 32 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $114,900 Active 28 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $114,900 Active 27 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $114,900 Active 26 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $114,900 Active 25 DOM
17. 2026-05-18
    price $114,900 974-char remark
18. 2026-05-02
    listed $119,900 Active 974-char remark
19. 2015-10-15
    soldstatus
20. 2015-10-13
    soldstatus 232-char remark

    Show marketing remark (232 chars)

    Refugio - Rambling family home with detached one bedroom garage apt. Main house has 2 bedrooms downstairs, 2 bedrooms upstairs. Large kitchen, family room. Needs some TLC but could be a good home for a large family. Sold as is only.

21. 2015-08-04
    listed $65,000 232-char remark

    Show marketing remark (232 chars)

    Refugio - Rambling family home with detached one bedroom garage apt. Main house has 2 bedrooms downstairs, 2 bedrooms upstairs. Large kitchen, family room. Needs some TLC but could be a good home for a large family. Sold as is only.

22. 2007-08-10
    soldstatus

    Show marketing remark (333 chars)

    Please call CSS for showing instructions. Agents must sign in and be at property for all showings, inspections, appraisals, and for turn on of utilities. Sale of this property is subject to HUD regulations. Seller will make no repairs. This is an as is sale with all its faults. Participating brokers may receive up to 5% commission.

23. 2007-05-23
    listed $36,000

    Show marketing remark (333 chars)

    Please call CSS for showing instructions. Agents must sign in and be at property for all showings, inspections, appraisals, and for turn on of utilities. Sale of this property is subject to HUD regulations. Seller will make no repairs. This is an as is sale with all its faults. Participating brokers may receive up to 5% commission.

24. 2007-03-09
    listed $40,500
25. 2007-01-19
    soldstatus
26. 2005-11-18
    soldstatus
27. 2005-11-11
    soldstatus
28. 2005-11-10
    soldstatus
29. 2005-10-26
    soldstatus
30. 2005-10-24
    soldstatus
31. 2005-05-11
    listed $57,500
32. 1982-02-25
    soldstatus
33. 1981-04-01
    soldstatus
34. 1970-04-02
    soldstatus
35. 1965-10-11
    soldstatus
36. 1963-03-28
    soldstatus
37. 1934-09-15
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,397 · $283/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,397 · $283/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 22% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,329
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,876
• − Property taxes: −$3,397
• − Insurance: −$524
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,226
• − Management: −$1,226
• − Depreciation: −$3,052
• Taxable income: $27
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$6
• After-tax cash flow: $1,580/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Refugio ISD
• NCES district ID: 4836780
• Math proficiency: 38% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 38% ▲ 2.00%
• Median HH income: $46,181
• Composite: 32.48/100
• National rank: #5712
• State rank: #455 of 826 in TX

Livability — Refugio

• Score: 72/100
• State rank: #255
• US rank: #6003

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A- Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Refugio, TX
• Population (ZIP): 3,376

Population outlook (Refugio County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 7,573 people
• By 2030: 7,665 · +1.2%
• By 2040: 7,895 · +4.3%
• By 2050: 8,234 · +8.7%
• By 2075: 9,521 · +25.7%
• By 2100: 10,148 · +34.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.60)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 51% White 35% Two or more races 25% Black 11%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 48%
• Common ancestry: Iranian 2% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 75% English-only · Spanish 24%

Political lean MEDSL · Refugio

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+39.5) · D 29.9% · R 69.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -25.0pp toward R · 2008: -14.5pp · 2024: -39.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+39.5 2020: R+32.7 2016: R+27.0 2012: R+24.7 2008: R+14.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -2.20%
• Current HPI: 142.4929
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+82.4% since first listed

22 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-10 Price Changed $104,900 CBMLS
• 2026-05-18 Price Changed $114,900 CBMLS
• 2026-05-02 Listed $119,900 CBMLS
• 2015-10-15 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2015-10-13 Sold (MLS) — CBMLS
• 2015-08-04 Listed $65,000 CBMLS
• 2007-08-10 Sold (MLS) — LERA
• 2007-05-23 Listed $36,000 LERA
• 2007-03-09 Listed $40,500 CBMLS
• 2007-01-19 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2005-11-18 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2005-11-11 Sold (MLS) — CBMLS
• 2005-11-10 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2005-10-26 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2005-10-24 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2005-05-11 Listed $57,500 CBMLS
• 1982-02-25 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1981-04-01 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1970-04-02 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1965-10-11 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1963-03-28 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1934-09-15 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+4.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,397 · +7.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.