5305 Seacliff Pl #3

San Diego, CA 92154

$448,895D+

3 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,875 sqft · Built 2024 · Townhouse · Active · 73 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $3,833/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,354
• Tax + insurance: −$404
• HOA: −$382
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$805
• Net cashflow: $-112/mo
• Annual: $-1,344/yr
• Cap rate: 5.99%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.07%
• DSCR: 0.95
• 1% rule: 0.85%
• Cash to close: $125,691

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/3.0-bath townhouse listed at $449k. Condition is rated excellent.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-112 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $429k (4.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $383k (14.6% below list).
• It's been on market 73 days — a 6% lower offer ($422k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $383k (14.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $13k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#123 in CA, #4,206 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, employment A+; Watch: health & safety C-, crime D+, cost of living F.
• Sweetwater Union High (suburban): math 36% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #187 of 517 in CA (top 36%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.5%/yr); 210 active listings in the ZIP; 21 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 2d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 11,759 units permitted in San Diego County in 2024 (7,244 in 5+ unit buildings).
• San Diego County population projected at +20% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• Cap rate 6.0% vs local median 2.0% in San Diego — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• At $3,833/mo this rent would consume 48% of the median local household income ($95k/yr) (locally 2959% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 73 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 15% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?