10414 Melvich Dr

Glasgow Village, MO 63137

$117,499C-

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 932 sqft · Built 1958 · SingleFamily · Active · 55 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,318/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$616
• Tax + insurance: −$143
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$277
• Net cashflow: $282/mo
• Annual: $3,389/yr
• Cap rate: 9.18%
• Cash-on-cash: 10.30%
• DSCR: 1.46
• 1% rule: 1.12%
• Cash to close: $32,900

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $117k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $282 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $117k).
• It's been on market 55 days — a 3% lower offer ($114k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $114k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $812 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 55/100 on livability (#756 in MO) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing B; Watch: schools F, crime F, amenities F.
• Riverview Gardens (suburban): math 2% / reading 9% proficiency, ranked #324 of 324 in MO (top 100%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 90% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Watch-outs: built in 1958 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+6.6%/yr); 201 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 40% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 920 units permitted in St. Louis County in 2024 (250 in 5+ unit buildings).
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $13k (10%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $17k; list at $117k implies a 591% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 6.6% rent growth), your $33k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 9.2% vs local median 12.4% in Glasgow Village — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.
• This rent runs 36% of the median local income ($43k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 55 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1958 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.