327 Gail Ln

Caryville, TN 37757

$370,000D

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,680 sqft · Built 1996 · SingleFamily · Active · 40 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,340/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,940
• Tax + insurance: −$218
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$491
• Net cashflow: $-309/mo
• Annual: $-3,714/yr
• Cap rate: 5.29%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.58%
• DSCR: 0.84
• 1% rule: 0.63%
• Cash to close: $103,600

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $370k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-309 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $315k (14.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $234k (36.8% below list).
• It's been on market 40 days — a 3% lower offer ($359k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $234k (36.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $40k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $37k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#184 in TN) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Campbell County (rural): math 19% / reading 20% proficiency, ranked #120 of 139 in TN (top 86%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 64% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Jacksboro Elementary (math 43% / reading 31%, grade F, #272 of 952 statewide, top 31%, 650 students, 0% FRL); Jacksboro Middle School (math 28% / reading 23%, grade F, #147 of 333 statewide, top 45%, 493 students, 0% FRL); Campbell County Comprehensive High School (math 12% / reading 24%, grade F, #212 of 332 statewide, top 64%, 1,242 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools average 0% FRL vs 64% district-wide (64 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Market conditions: 92 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 111 units permitted in Campbell County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Campbell County population projected at -21% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 2 sale attempts since 3y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $30k (7%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $280k; 32% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$64k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 5.3% vs local median 2.1% in Caryville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 40 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 37% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.