327 Gail Ln · Caryville, TN 37757

$370,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,680 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 40 Days on market

Built 1996 0.41 ac lot Est $413k · 10% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +12.2/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Cash flow +8.7/30.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +2.4/10.0
• Schools +1.6/10.0
• 1% rule +1.3/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Want a home with a flat driveway, mountain views and sunroom to enjoy those mountain views? This home could be yours. Enjoy your coffee in the sunroom while having a little space between you and the neighbors. Large main bedroom with en suite, family room with rustic wood trim on the vaulted ceiling, attached two car garage and all large rooms for comfortable one level living. The beautiful neighborhood has many trees and scenic mountain views. Hardwood and tile flooring await you - carpet in the bedrooms to keep those toes warm on cold days. Motivated sellers- do not wait on this one

Key facts

• Extra storage
• Sun room
• Large kitchen

Tags

• LARGE KITCHEN
• SUN ROOM
• FENCED IN BACK YARD
• LUXURY VINYL FLOORS
• EXTRA STORAGE

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage with garage door opener (main level access)
• Utilities: Public sewer
• Home design: Not attached to another unit
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Frame construction
• Exterior features: Vinyl windows; Professionally landscaped; Mountain view; Country setting; Lot is irregular, level with rolling slope; Lot dimensions approximately 99 x 177

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Microwave; Self-cleaning oven; Refrigerator
• Flooring: Carpet; Vinyl; Tile
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Heat pump; Natural gas heating; Electric heating; Central cooling; Ceiling fan(s)
• Interior features: Walk-in closet(s); Pantry; Eat-in kitchen; 7 total rooms
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $370k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-309 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $315k (14.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $234k (36.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $234k (36.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.3% vs local median 2.1% in Caryville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#184 in TN) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Campbell County (rural): math 19% / reading 20% proficiency, ranked #120 of 139 in TN (top 86%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 64% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 92 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 111 units permitted in Campbell County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $40k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $37k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Campbell County population projected at -21% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$64k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 40 days — a 3% lower offer ($359k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 3y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $30k (7%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $280k; 32% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $234,000 (36.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 40 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 37% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.63% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.29%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.58%
• DSCR: 0.84
• GRM: 13.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $413,280
• Comps found: 2

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
385 Mcghee Ln	0.26mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,532 (-9%)	13mo	$300,000	$196	54
167 Gail Lane Ln	0.33mi	3/2.0	1,870 (+11%)	16mo	$460,000	$246	48

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 21.7%
• Equity multiple: 2.75×
• Total profit: $181,592
• Equity at exit: $333,325

10-year hold

• IRR: 19.5%
• Equity multiple: 6.31×
• Total profit: $549,840
• Equity at exit: $718,829

Cash invested: $103,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Tennessee: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

14-day notice (URLTA); generally landlord-favorable; Nashville court paced moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 37757

• Home prices YoY: 6.8%
• Active inventory: 92
• Price-to-rent: 13.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,340 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,940
• Tax from tax record: −$64 /mo · $763/yr
• Insurance: −$154
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$491
• Net cashflow: $-309

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,732

Max offer price $315,331

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-100	-5% $-205	+0% $-309	+5% $-836	+10% $-964
Rent	-10% $-494	-5% $-402	+0% $-309	+5% $-217	+10% $-125
Rate	-1.0pp $-123	-0.5pp $-215	base $-309	+0.5pp $-405	+1.0pp $-503

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $92,500
• Closing costs: $11,100
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
178 Sycamore Dr Jacksboro, TN	3.0	2.0	2076	$2,340	$1.13	20d	1	1.33mi

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $370,000 Active 40 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $370,000 Active 38 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $370,000 Active 37 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $370,000 Active 36 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $370,000 Active 35 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $370,000 Active 33 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $370,000 Active 32 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $370,000 Active 29 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $370,000 Active 28 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $370,000 Active 27 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $370,000 Active 26 DOM
12. 2026-06-04
    days on market $370,000 Active 23 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $370,000 Active 22 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    price $370,000 Active 21 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $384,500 Active 21 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $384,500 Active 20 DOM
17. 2026-05-11
    listed $399,500 Active
18. 2023-09-07
    soldstatus $280,199
19. 2023-08-31
    soldstatus $280,199 Closed 597-char remark

    Show marketing remark (597 chars)

    Want a home with a flat driveway, mountain views and sunroom to enjoy those mountain views? This home could be yours. Enjoy your coffee in the sunroom while having a little space between you and the neighbors. Large main bedroom with en suite, family room with rustic wood trim on the vaulted ceiling, attached two car garage and all large rooms for comfortable one level living. The beautiful neighborhood has many trees and scenic mountain views. Hardwood and tile flooring await you - carpet in the bedrooms to keep those toes warm on cold days. Motivated sellers- do not wait on this one

20. 2023-07-18
    historical Pending - Continue to Show 597-char remark

    Show marketing remark (597 chars)

    Want a home with a flat driveway, mountain views and sunroom to enjoy those mountain views? This home could be yours. Enjoy your coffee in the sunroom while having a little space between you and the neighbors. Large main bedroom with en suite, family room with rustic wood trim on the vaulted ceiling, attached two car garage and all large rooms for comfortable one level living. The beautiful neighborhood has many trees and scenic mountain views. Hardwood and tile flooring await you - carpet in the bedrooms to keep those toes warm on cold days. Motivated sellers- do not wait on this one

21. 2023-07-14
    listed $275,000 Active 597-char remark

    Show marketing remark (597 chars)

    Want a home with a flat driveway, mountain views and sunroom to enjoy those mountain views? This home could be yours. Enjoy your coffee in the sunroom while having a little space between you and the neighbors. Large main bedroom with en suite, family room with rustic wood trim on the vaulted ceiling, attached two car garage and all large rooms for comfortable one level living. The beautiful neighborhood has many trees and scenic mountain views. Hardwood and tile flooring await you - carpet in the bedrooms to keep those toes warm on cold days. Motivated sellers- do not wait on this one

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TN · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $763 · $64/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,627 · $219/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,864/yr (+$155/mo · 244.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥102°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 3% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $28,080
• − Mortgage interest: −$20,726
• − Property taxes: −$763
• − Insurance: −$1,850
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,246
• − Management: −$2,246
• − Depreciation: −$10,764
• Taxable loss: −$10,515
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,524
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,190/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Campbell County
• NCES district ID: 4700420
• Math proficiency: 19% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 20% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $32,606
• Composite: 15.84/100
• National rank: #9262
• State rank: #120 of 139 in TN

Livability — Caryville

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #184
• US rank: #14954

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 10,515

Population outlook (Campbell County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 37,507 people
• By 2030: 35,989 · -4.0%
• By 2040: 32,773 · -12.6%
• By 2050: 29,475 · -21.4%
• By 2075: 21,972 · -41.4%
• By 2100: 15,332 · -59.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (97%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 97% Two or more races 1%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Italian 3% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 1% · China
• Languages at home: 99% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Campbell

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+69.6) · D 14.8% · R 84.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -32.7pp toward R · 2008: -37.0pp · 2024: -69.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+69.6 2020: R+66.2 2016: R+60.9 2012: R+43.6 2008: R+37.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 22.88%
• Current HPI: 360.3957
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.78%
• F500 in state: 22

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	3	$91B
▸Retail	3	$72B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$88B
▸Paper / Packaging	1	$19B
▸Insurance	1	$13B
▸Energy	1	$12B

Price history

+45.3% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-11 Listed $399,500 Knoxville MLS
• 2023-09-07 Sold (Public Records) $280,199 Public Records
• 2023-08-31 Sold (MLS) $280,199 Knoxville MLS
• 2023-07-18 Contingent — Knoxville MLS
• 2023-07-14 Listed $275,000 Knoxville MLS

Property tax history

+0.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $763 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.