221 Dogwood Rd

Yorktown, VA 23690

$549,000D-

3 bd · 3.5 ba · 2,890 sqft · Built 2011 · SingleFamily · Under Contract · 49 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $3,500/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,879
• Tax + insurance: −$549
• HOA: −$78
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$735
• Net cashflow: $-741/mo
• Annual: $-8,897/yr
• Cap rate: 4.67%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.79%
• DSCR: 0.74
• 1% rule: 0.64%
• Cash to close: $153,720

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/3.5-bath single-family listed at $549k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-741 ($-9k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $418k (23.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $350k (36.2% below list).
• It's been on market 49 days — a 3% lower offer ($533k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $350k (36.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $6k of equity ($4k loan paydown + $2k appreciation (0.4% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#189 in VA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing B; Watch: amenities F, commute D-, cost of living F.
• York County Public School District (suburban): math 77% / reading 87% proficiency, ranked #3 of 131 in VA (top 2%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical; only 15% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Yorktown Elementary (math 64% / reading 74%, grade A-, #351 of 1,108 statewide, top 32%, 613 students, 60% FRL); York High (math 69% / reading 92%, grade A, #57 of 319 statewide, top 18%, 1,050 students, 40% FRL) — zoned schools average 50% FRL vs 15% district-wide (35 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 44 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 187 units permitted in York County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• York County population projected at +16% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 7 sale attempts since 9y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $375k; 46% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• By year 6, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$37k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 4.7% vs local median 3.3% in Yorktown — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 49 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 36% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.