221 Dogwood Rd · Yorktown, VA 23690

$549,000

3 bd · 3.5 ba · 2,890 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 49 Days on market

Built 2011 Est $543k · at est. $78/mo HOA · 2% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +7.3/30.0
• Schools +7.2/10.0
• ARV discount +7.0/15.0
• Appreciation +5.2/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.4/10.0
• DSCR +1.4/10.0

Listing remarks

Well maintained 4-bedroom, 3.5 bath home in Magnolia Park. This home offers over 2800 sq ft across three levels. The main floor features an open concept living space with gas fireplace, kitchen w/ pantry, breakfast area, formal dining room, a freshly painted study, as well as a half bath. The second floor features a large additional living/flex area two additional bedrooms, full bath and laundry.

Key facts

• 2 garage spots
• Built 2011
• Listed 49 days

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Part of Magnolia Park Homeowners Association; HOA fee approximately $78 monthly

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage; Driveway parking; Garage approximately 422 sq ft
• Utilities: City/County water; City/County sewer; Gas water heater
• Home design: Detached property; Cape Cod / Craftsman style; Three stories (described as 2 living levels); Crawl foundation; Handheld showerhead accessibility feature
• Construction: Composite roof
• Exterior features: Vinyl siding; Back yard fenced; Storage shed; Wooded view

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Disposal; Microwave; Range; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: No bedroom with full bathroom on first floor; Total rooms: 9
• Flooring: Carpet; Laminate
• Bathrooms: Three full bathrooms; One half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Electric heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Ceiling fan; Garage door opener; Decorative gas fireplace; Double sink in primary bathroom; Walk-in closet; Window treatments; Attic; Breakfast area; Office/Study; Pantry; Porch
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/3.5-bath single-family listed at $549k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-741 ($-9k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $418k (23.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $350k (36.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $350k (36.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.7% vs local median 3.3% in Yorktown — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#189 in VA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing B; Watch: amenities F, commute D-, cost of living F.
• York County Public School District (suburban): math 77% / reading 87% proficiency, ranked #3 of 131 in VA (top 2%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical; only 15% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Yorktown Elementary (math 64% / reading 74%, grade A-, #351 of 1,108 statewide, top 32%, 613 students, 60% FRL); York High (math 69% / reading 92%, grade A, #57 of 319 statewide, top 18%, 1,050 students, 40% FRL) — zoned schools average 50% FRL vs 15% district-wide (35 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 44 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 187 units permitted in York County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $6k of equity ($4k loan paydown + $2k appreciation (0.4% local appreciation)).
• York County population projected at +16% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 6, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$37k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 49 days — a 3% lower offer ($533k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 7 sale attempts since 9y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $375k; 46% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $350,000 (36.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 49 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 36% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.64% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.67%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.79%
• DSCR: 0.74
• GRM: 13.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $543,320
• Comps found: 4

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
221 Dogwood Rd	0.00mi	4/3.5 (+1)	2,890 (0%)	1mo	$549,000	$190	94
100 Mulberry Ct	0.22mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,908 (+1%)	9mo	$497,000	$171	72
411 Maple Rd	0.26mi	4/3.5 (+1)	3,085 (+7%)	6mo	$570,000	$185	66
105 Silverlake Run	0.34mi	4/3.5 (+1)	3,010 (+4%)	20mo	$565,000	$188	56

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

0.39% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -7.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.65×
• Total profit: $-53,168
• Equity at exit: $170,302

10-year hold

• IRR: -1.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.85×
• Total profit: $-23,820
• Equity at exit: $213,617

Cash invested: $153,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 23690

• Home prices YoY: 0.2%
• Active inventory: 44
• Price-to-rent: 13.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,500 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,879
• Tax from tax record: −$321 /mo · $3,848/yr
• Insurance: −$229
• HOA: −$78
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$735
• Net cashflow: $-741

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,438

Max offer price $418,027

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-431	-5% $-586	+0% $-741	+5% $-897	+10% $-1,052
Rent	-10% $-1,018	-5% $-880	+0% $-741	+5% $-603	+10% $-465
Rate	-1.0pp $-465	-0.5pp $-602	base $-741	+0.5pp $-884	+1.0pp $-1,028

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $137,250
• Closing costs: $16,470
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
101 Sycamore Ln Yorktown, VA	4.0	2.5	2735	$3,500	$1.28	8d	1	0.77mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $78 · $936/yr
• Likely covers: gas

Listing history 25 events

1. 2026-05-07
   status Under Contract
2. 2026-04-23
   historical Active Under Contract
3. 2026-04-08
   status Active
4. 2026-03-27
   historical Active Under Contract
5. 2026-03-19
   listed $549,000 Active
6. 2021-05-03
   soldstatus $375,000
7. 2021-02-23
   status Under Contract
8. 2021-02-15
   historical Active Under Contract
9. 2021-02-14
   price $375,000
10. 2021-02-11
    listed $370,000 Active
11. 2018-02-12
    soldstatus $314,500
12. 2018-02-01
    status Under Contract
13. 2018-02-01
    status Active
14. 2018-01-16
    listed $309,900 Active
15. 2018-01-14
    historical
16. 2017-12-06
    price $309,900
17. 2017-11-11
    price $315,000
18. 2017-09-26
    status Active
19. 2017-09-21
    status Under Contract
20. 2017-09-21
    historical
21. 2017-08-11
    price $319,900
22. 2017-08-01
    price $329,900
23. 2017-07-15
    price $334,000
24. 2017-02-18
    listed $339,000 Active
25. 2010-07-07
    soldstatus $321,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast VA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,848 · $321/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,502 · $375/mo
• Expected delta: +$654/yr (+$55/mo · 17.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $42,000
• − Mortgage interest: −$30,753
• − Property taxes: −$3,848
• − Insurance: −$2,745
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,360
• − Management: −$3,360
• − HOA: −$936
• − Depreciation: −$15,971
• Taxable loss: −$18,972
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$4,553
• After-tax cash flow: $-4,344/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: York County Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5104150
• Math proficiency: 77% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 87% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $81,985
• Composite: 72.34/100
• National rank: #202
• State rank: #3 of 131 in VA

Livability — Yorktown

• Score: 72/100
• State rank: #189
• US rank: #5884

Category grades

Amenities F Commute D- Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing B Health & safety F User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 42,477
• Population (ZIP): 4,948

Population outlook (York County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 75,000 people
• By 2030: 78,122 · +4.2%
• By 2040: 83,329 · +11.1%
• By 2050: 87,381 · +16.5%
• By 2075: 99,308 · +32.4%
• By 2100: 101,751 · +35.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.68)
• Race & ethnicity: White 48% Black 22% Hispanic / Latino 21% Two or more races 19%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 6% Puerto Rican 12%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Serbian 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 87% English-only · Spanish 10% Other Indo-European 1% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · York

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+6.1) · D 46.3% · R 52.4% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +11.9pp toward D · 2008: -18.1pp · 2024: -6.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+6.1 2020: R+6.6 2016: R+17.1 2012: R+20.7 2008: R+18.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 0.39%
• Current HPI: 244.1455
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Price history

+70.8% since first listed

25 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-07 Pending — REINMLS
• 2026-04-23 Contingent — REINMLS
• 2026-04-08 Relisted — REINMLS
• 2026-03-27 Contingent — REINMLS
• 2026-03-19 Listed $549,000 REINMLS
• 2021-05-03 Sold (Public Records) $375,000 Public Records
• 2021-02-23 Pending — REINMLS
• 2021-02-15 Contingent — REINMLS
• 2021-02-14 Price Changed $375,000 REINMLS
• 2021-02-11 Listed $370,000 REINMLS
• 2018-02-12 Sold (Public Records) $314,500 Public Records
• 2018-02-01 Pending — REINMLS
• 2018-02-01 Relisted — REINMLS
• 2018-01-16 Listed $309,900 REINMLS
• 2018-01-14 Listing Removed — REINMLS
• 2017-12-06 Price Changed $309,900 REINMLS
• 2017-11-11 Price Changed $315,000 REINMLS
• 2017-09-26 Relisted — REINMLS
• 2017-09-21 Pending — REINMLS
• 2017-09-21 Listing Removed — REINMLS
• 2017-08-11 Price Changed $319,900 REINMLS
• 2017-08-01 Price Changed $329,900 REINMLS
• 2017-07-15 Price Changed $334,000 REINMLS
• 2017-02-18 Listed $339,000 REINMLS
• 2010-07-07 Sold (Public Records) $321,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+4.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,848 · +7.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.