18 Windmill Rd

Southwood Acres, CT 06082

$315,000D

4 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,296 sqft · Built 1971 · SingleFamily · Active · 50 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,591/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,652
• Tax + insurance: −$573
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$544
• Net cashflow: $-178/mo
• Annual: $-2,135/yr
• Cap rate: 5.62%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.42%
• DSCR: 0.89
• 1% rule: 0.82%
• Cash to close: $88,200

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $315k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-178 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $284k (10.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $259k (17.7% below list).
• It's been on market 50 days — a 3% lower offer ($306k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $259k (17.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#83 in CT) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: cost of living C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Enfield School District (suburban): math 25% / reading 41% proficiency, ranked #114 of 153 in CT (top 74%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Edgar H. Parkman School (math 32% / reading 45%, grade F, #312 of 553 statewide, top 57%, 269 students, 48% FRL); John F. Kennedy Middle School (math 22% / reading 39%, grade F, #138 of 175 statewide, top 79%, 1,096 students, 46% FRL); Enfield High School (math 29% / reading 54%, grade F, #102 of 194 statewide, top 53%, 1,490 students, 40% FRL) — zoned schools average 45% FRL vs 29% district-wide (16 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.9%/yr); 188 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 1,867 units permitted in Capitol Planning Region in 2024 (1,399 in 5+ unit buildings).
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 5.6% vs local median 4.2% in Southwood Acres — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($90k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 50 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 18% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1971 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.