2600 Patriot Run

Bay City, TX 77414

$202,241D

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,979 sqft · Built 2025 · SingleFamily · Active · 65 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,605/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,061
• Tax + insurance: −$337
• HOA: −$42
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$337
• Net cashflow: $-172/mo
• Annual: $-2,062/yr
• Cap rate: 5.27%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.64%
• DSCR: 0.84
• 1% rule: 0.79%
• Cash to close: $56,627

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $202k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-172 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $177k (12.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $160k (20.6% below list).
• It's been on market 65 days — a 6% lower offer ($190k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $160k (20.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#311 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime F, commute F, employment F.
• Bay City ISD (town): math 31% / reading 31% proficiency, ranked #604 of 826 in TX (top 73%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 66% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Bay City J H (math 34% / reading 32%, grade F, #930 of 1,662 statewide, top 57%, 789 students, 77% FRL); Bay City H S (math 35% / reading 39%, grade F, #897 of 1,632 statewide, top 57%, 1,031 students, 78% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.3%/yr); 622 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 46d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 153 units permitted in Matagorda County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $27k (12%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Cap rate 5.3% vs local median 3.4% in Bay City — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($59k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 65 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 21% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?