2600 Patriot Run · Bay City, TX 77414

$202,241

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,979 sqft · SingleFamily · 65 Days on market

Built 2025 $102/sqft · 18% below area Est $245k · 18% under $42/mo HOA · 3% of rent ↓ 12% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +8.7/30.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Rent growth +3.3/5.0
• 1% rule +2.9/10.0
• Schools +2.6/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +2.4/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

The first floor of this two-story home shares a spacious open layout between the kitchen, dining room and family room for easy entertaining. Upstairs are three secondary bedrooms, ideal for residents and overnight guests, surrounding a versatile loft that serves as an additional shared living space. An owner's suite sprawls across the rear of the second floor and enjoys an en-suite bathroom and a walk-in closet.

Key facts

• Walk-in closet
• Open floorplan
• Secondary bedrooms

Tags

• OPEN FLOORPLAN
• OWNER'S SUITE
• EN-SUITE BATHROOM
• WALK-IN CLOSET
• SECONDARY BEDROOMS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $202k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-172 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $177k (12.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $160k (20.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $160k (20.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.3% vs local median 3.4% in Bay City — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#311 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime F, commute F, employment F.
• Bay City ISD (town): math 31% / reading 31% proficiency, ranked #604 of 826 in TX (top 73%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 66% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Bay City J H (math 34% / reading 32%, grade F, #930 of 1,662 statewide, top 57%, 789 students, 77% FRL); Bay City H S (math 35% / reading 39%, grade F, #897 of 1,632 statewide, top 57%, 1,031 students, 78% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.3%/yr); 622 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 46d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 153 units permitted in Matagorda County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($59k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 65 days — a 6% lower offer ($190k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $27k (12%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Recommended offer $160,480 (20.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 65 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 21% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.79% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.27%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.64%
• DSCR: 0.84
• GRM: 10.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $245,490
• List price: $202,241
• Delta: -17.62%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1113 Live Oak Ave	0.03mi	4/2.5	1,979 (0%)	1mo	$248,990	$126	98
5008 Freedom Ln	0.00mi	4/2.5	1,979 (0%)	5mo	$250,990	$127	96
1104 Independence Ave	0.05mi	4/2.5	2,003 (+1%)	1mo	$284,900	$142	95
5024 Freedom Ln	0.11mi	4/2.5	1,979 (0%)	1mo	$250,990	$127	94
1117 Live Oak Ave	0.07mi	4/2.5	1,922 (-3%)	2mo	$260,990	$136	90
2624 Del Monte Ave	0.26mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,974 (-0%)	1mo	$219,000	$111	80
2620 Patriot Run	0.09mi	4/2.0	1,716 (-13%)	1mo	$258,991	$151	71
2407 16th St	0.13mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,786 (-10%)	0mo	$264,900	$148	70
1017 Live Oak Ave	0.14mi	4/2.0	1,716 (-13%)	2mo	$252,990	$147	68
2917 Encino Ave	0.47mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,935 (-2%)	1mo	$284,900	$147	66
2509 Grace St	0.07mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,684 (-15%)	4mo	$257,900	$153	62
16 Tellina St	0.71mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,968 (-1%)	3mo	$270,000	$137	59

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.28% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -22.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.24×
• Total profit: $-43,214
• Equity at exit: $30,155

10-year hold

• IRR: -15.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.12×
• Total profit: $-49,649
• Equity at exit: $17,486

Cash invested: $56,627 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77414

• Home prices YoY: -17.7%
• Rents YoY: 3.3%
• Active inventory: 622
• Price-to-rent: 10.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,605 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,061
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$253 /mo · $3,034/yr
• Insurance: −$84
• HOA: −$42
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$337
• Net cashflow: $-172

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,822

Max offer price $177,374

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-32	-5% $-102	+0% $-172	+5% $-242	+10% $-312
Rent	-10% $-299	-5% $-235	+0% $-172	+5% $-108	+10% $-45
Rate	-1.0pp $-70	-0.5pp $-120	base $-172	+0.5pp $-224	+1.0pp $-278

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $50,560
• Closing costs: $6,067
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3112 15th St Bay City, TX	3.0	2.0	1983	$1,800	$0.91	45d	1	0.39mi
1417 Highland Dr Bay City, TX	3.0	2.0	1662	$1,600	$0.96	45d	1	0.53mi
2824 4th St Bay City, TX	4.0	2.0	1524	$1,800	$1.18	45d	1	0.86mi
2600 Avenue K Bay City, TX	3.0	2.0	1277	$1,665	$1.30	45d	1	1.04mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $42 · $504/yr

Listing history 12 events

1. 2026-05-07
   price $202,241 415-char remark

   Show marketing remark (415 chars)

   The first floor of this two-story home shares a spacious open layout between the kitchen, dining room and family room for easy entertaining. Upstairs are three secondary bedrooms, ideal for residents and overnight guests, surrounding a versatile loft that serves as an additional shared living space. An owner's suite sprawls across the rear of the second floor and enjoys an en-suite bathroom and a walk-in closet.

2. 2026-05-06
   price $202,241 531-char remark

   Show marketing remark (531 chars)

   NEW! Lennar Cottage Collection "Whitetail" Plan with Brick Elevation "J1" in Valor Park in Bay City! This single-level home showcases a spacious open floorplan shared between the kitchen, dining area and family room for easy entertaining. An owner’s suite enjoys a private location in a rear corner of the home, complemented by an en-suite bathroom and walk-in closet. There are three secondary bedrooms along the side of the home, which are comfortable spaces for household members and overnight guests.

3. 2026-05-05
   price $202,240 415-char remark

   Show marketing remark (415 chars)

   The first floor of this two-story home shares a spacious open layout between the kitchen, dining room and family room for easy entertaining. Upstairs are three secondary bedrooms, ideal for residents and overnight guests, surrounding a versatile loft that serves as an additional shared living space. An owner's suite sprawls across the rear of the second floor and enjoys an en-suite bathroom and a walk-in closet.

4. 2026-05-04
   price $202,240 531-char remark

   Show marketing remark (531 chars)

   NEW! Lennar Cottage Collection "Whitetail" Plan with Brick Elevation "J1" in Valor Park in Bay City! This single-level home showcases a spacious open floorplan shared between the kitchen, dining area and family room for easy entertaining. An owner’s suite enjoys a private location in a rear corner of the home, complemented by an en-suite bathroom and walk-in closet. There are three secondary bedrooms along the side of the home, which are comfortable spaces for household members and overnight guests.

5. 2026-04-28
   price $212,990 415-char remark

   Show marketing remark (415 chars)

   The first floor of this two-story home shares a spacious open layout between the kitchen, dining room and family room for easy entertaining. Upstairs are three secondary bedrooms, ideal for residents and overnight guests, surrounding a versatile loft that serves as an additional shared living space. An owner's suite sprawls across the rear of the second floor and enjoys an en-suite bathroom and a walk-in closet.

6. 2026-04-27
   price $212,990 531-char remark

   Show marketing remark (531 chars)

   NEW! Lennar Cottage Collection "Whitetail" Plan with Brick Elevation "J1" in Valor Park in Bay City! This single-level home showcases a spacious open floorplan shared between the kitchen, dining area and family room for easy entertaining. An owner’s suite enjoys a private location in a rear corner of the home, complemented by an en-suite bathroom and walk-in closet. There are three secondary bedrooms along the side of the home, which are comfortable spaces for household members and overnight guests.

7. 2026-04-17
   price $218,990 415-char remark

   Show marketing remark (415 chars)

   The first floor of this two-story home shares a spacious open layout between the kitchen, dining room and family room for easy entertaining. Upstairs are three secondary bedrooms, ideal for residents and overnight guests, surrounding a versatile loft that serves as an additional shared living space. An owner's suite sprawls across the rear of the second floor and enjoys an en-suite bathroom and a walk-in closet.

8. 2026-04-16
   price $218,990 531-char remark

   Show marketing remark (531 chars)

   NEW! Lennar Cottage Collection "Whitetail" Plan with Brick Elevation "J1" in Valor Park in Bay City! This single-level home showcases a spacious open floorplan shared between the kitchen, dining area and family room for easy entertaining. An owner’s suite enjoys a private location in a rear corner of the home, complemented by an en-suite bathroom and walk-in closet. There are three secondary bedrooms along the side of the home, which are comfortable spaces for household members and overnight guests.

9. 2026-04-14
   price $223,990 415-char remark

   Show marketing remark (531 chars)

   NEW! Lennar Cottage Collection "Whitetail" Plan with Brick Elevation "J1" in Valor Park in Bay City! This single-level home showcases a spacious open floorplan shared between the kitchen, dining area and family room for easy entertaining. An owner’s suite enjoys a private location in a rear corner of the home, complemented by an en-suite bathroom and walk-in closet. There are three secondary bedrooms along the side of the home, which are comfortable spaces for household members and overnight guests.

10. 2026-04-14
    price $223,990 531-char remark

    Show marketing remark (531 chars)

    NEW! Lennar Cottage Collection "Whitetail" Plan with Brick Elevation "J1" in Valor Park in Bay City! This single-level home showcases a spacious open floorplan shared between the kitchen, dining area and family room for easy entertaining. An owner’s suite enjoys a private location in a rear corner of the home, complemented by an en-suite bathroom and walk-in closet. There are three secondary bedrooms along the side of the home, which are comfortable spaces for household members and overnight guests.

11. 2026-04-11
    listed $228,990 Active 415-char remark

    Show marketing remark (415 chars)

    The first floor of this two-story home shares a spacious open layout between the kitchen, dining room and family room for easy entertaining. Upstairs are three secondary bedrooms, ideal for residents and overnight guests, surrounding a versatile loft that serves as an additional shared living space. An owner's suite sprawls across the rear of the second floor and enjoys an en-suite bathroom and a walk-in closet.

12. 2026-03-23
    listed $228,990 Active 531-char remark

    Show marketing remark (531 chars)

    NEW! Lennar Cottage Collection "Whitetail" Plan with Brick Elevation "J1" in Valor Park in Bay City! This single-level home showcases a spacious open floorplan shared between the kitchen, dining area and family room for easy entertaining. An owner’s suite enjoys a private location in a rear corner of the home, complemented by an en-suite bathroom and walk-in closet. There are three secondary bedrooms along the side of the home, which are comfortable spaces for household members and overnight guests.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,258
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,329
• − Property taxes: −$3,034
• − Insurance: −$1,011
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,541
• − Management: −$1,541
• − HOA: −$504
• − Depreciation: −$5,883
• Taxable loss: −$5,584
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,340
• After-tax cash flow: $-722/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Bay City ISD
• NCES district ID: 4809630
• Math proficiency: 31% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 31% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $43,285
• Composite: 26.4/100
• National rank: #7229
• State rank: #604 of 826 in TX

Livability — Bay City

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #311
• US rank: #7004

Category grades

Amenities C+ Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Bay City, TX
• County: Matagorda County · 24,334 people
• City population: 24,334
• Metro: Bay City, TX
• Population (ZIP): 24,334
• Household income: $59,128
• Rent vs Own: 41.6% rent · 58.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 1228.0

Population outlook (Matagorda County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 37,148 people
• By 2030: 37,082 · -0.2%
• By 2040: 36,987 · -0.4%
• By 2050: 36,934 · -0.6%
• By 2075: 37,178 · +0.1%
• By 2100: 35,184 · -5.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.65)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 43% White 39% Black 13% Two or more races 13% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 37% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Slovak 1% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 12% · Canada
• Languages at home: 71% English-only · Spanish 26% Other Indo-European 2% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Matagorda

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+50.5) · D 24.3% · R 74.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -23.1pp toward R · 2008: -27.4pp · 2024: -50.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+50.5 2020: R+44.5 2016: R+40.7 2012: R+33.5 2008: R+27.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -36.31%
• Current HPI: 168.9985
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• Metro: Bay City, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-11.7% since first listed

12 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-07 Price Changed $202,241 Zillow
• 2026-05-06 Price Changed $202,241 HARMLS
• 2026-05-05 Price Changed $202,240 Zillow
• 2026-05-04 Price Changed $202,240 HARMLS
• 2026-04-28 Price Changed $212,990 Zillow
• 2026-04-27 Price Changed $212,990 HARMLS
• 2026-04-17 Price Changed $218,990 Zillow
• 2026-04-16 Price Changed $218,990 HARMLS
• 2026-04-14 Price Changed $223,990 Zillow
• 2026-04-14 Price Changed $223,990 HARMLS
• 2026-04-11 Listed $228,990 Zillow
• 2026-03-23 Listed $228,990 HARMLS