3 bd · 3.0 ba ·
800 sqft ·
Built 1962
· SingleFamily
· Active
· 170 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$1,229/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$763
Tax + insurance
−$399
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$258
Net cashflow
$-191/mo
Annual
$-2,296/yr
Cap rate
4.71%
Cash-on-cash
-5.64%
DSCR
0.75
1% rule
0.84%
Cash to close
$40,740
Investor read
This is a 3-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $146k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $-191 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $112k (23.2% below list).
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $123k (15.5% below list).
It's been on market 170 days — a 12% lower offer ($128k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $112k (23.2% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
In year one you build about $15k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $14k appreciation (9.5% local appreciation)).
Location reads 78/100 on livability (#142 in IL, #2,604 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F, amenities D-.
Belleville Twp Hsd 201 (suburban): math 21% / reading 28% proficiency, ranked #308 of 620 in IL (top 50%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
Zoned schools: Belleville High School-West (math 19% / reading 26%, grade F, #317 of 693 statewide, top 46%, 2,234 students, 0% FRL).
Watch-outs: property tax is 2.8% of price.
Market conditions: 103 active listings in the ZIP; 8 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 783 units permitted in St. Clair County in 2024 (378 in 5+ unit buildings).
St. Clair County population projected at -23% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
2 sale attempts since 2y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $30k (17%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$37k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Questions for listing agent
What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
It's been on market 170 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 23% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Built in 1962 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
CashFlowRE · CFR-J04SEN470SSP5Q
· Data 2 days agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29