5814 Capri Forest Dr

Katy, TX 77493

$314,900D-

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,165 sqft · Built 2025 · SingleFamily · Pending · 77 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,589/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,651
• Tax + insurance: −$525
• HOA: −$145
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$544
• Net cashflow: $-276/mo
• Annual: $-3,310/yr
• Cap rate: 5.24%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.75%
• DSCR: 0.83
• 1% rule: 0.82%
• Cash to close: $88,172

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $315k. Condition is rated good.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-276 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $275k (12.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $259k (17.8% below list).
• It's been on market 77 days — a 6% lower offer ($296k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $259k (17.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#111 in TX, #3,613 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime C-, amenities D, commute F.
• Katy ISD (suburban): math 61% / reading 63% proficiency, ranked #29 of 826 in TX (top 4%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.8%/yr); 2696 active listings in the ZIP; 30 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 3 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $37k (11%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 5.2% vs local median 3.0% in Katy — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 77 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 18% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.