5814 Capri Forest Dr · Katy, TX 77493

$314,900

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,165 sqft · SingleFamily · 77 Days on market

Built 2025 Good condition 6,666 sqft lot $145/sqft · at area comps Est $322k · at est. $145/mo HOA · 6% of rent ↓ 20% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +8.5/30.0
• ARV discount +8.5/15.0
• Schools +5.7/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• 1% rule +3.2/10.0
• DSCR +2.3/10.0
• Rent growth +2.3/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

NO BACK NEIGHBORS! Welcome to the Norman! An impressive kitchen sits at the heart of the home, featuring a center island and spacious pantry. Adjacent to the kitchen is the dining room and great room, with abundant natural lighting. The main level also features a secluded study and powder room, but the star of the show is the primary suite, with a glorious walk-in closet and private bath. The second-floor features two additional bedrooms, a roomy, relaxing loft, and a shared bath to complete this stylish, inviting home.

Key facts

• Secluded study
• Spacious pantry
• Walk-in closet

Tags

• IMPRESSIVE KITCHEN
• CENTER ISLAND
• SPACIOUS PANTRY
• SECLUDED STUDY
• WALK-IN CLOSET
• PRIVATE BATH

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $315k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-276 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $275k (12.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $259k (17.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $259k (17.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.2% vs local median 3.0% in Katy — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#111 in TX, #3,613 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime C-, amenities D, commute F.
• Katy ISD (suburban): math 61% / reading 63% proficiency, ranked #29 of 826 in TX (top 4%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.8%/yr); 2696 active listings in the ZIP; 30 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 77 days — a 6% lower offer ($296k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $37k (11%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $258,911 (17.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 77 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 18% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.82% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.24%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.75%
• DSCR: 0.83
• GRM: 10.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $321,861
• List price: $314,900
• Delta: -2.16%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
5806 Havana Mist Dr	0.20mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,134 (-1%)	0mo	$305,000	$143	83
27334 Leeward Jetty Dr	0.18mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,201 (+2%)	0mo	$357,990	$163	82
27507 Crystalline Sage Ln	0.31mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,170 (+0%)	0mo	$364,990	$168	78
27303 Leeward Jetty Dr	0.14mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,340 (+8%)	0mo	$357,330	$153	73
4784 Luna Landing Dr	0.53mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,168 (+0%)	0mo	$335,990	$155	68
27519 Crystalline Sage Ln	0.34mi	4/2.0 (+1)	2,035 (-6%)	0mo	$371,990	$183	67
27018 Turtle Vista Dr	0.15mi	4/3.5 (+1)	2,400 (+11%)	0mo	$411,990	$172	66
6018 Bella Breeze Dr	0.49mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,294 (+6%)	0mo	$349,990	$153	60
4680 Peony Green Dr	0.61mi	4/2.0 (+1)	2,056 (-5%)	0mo	$343,990	$167	56
6418 Breakaway Grove Dr	0.70mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,263 (+4%)	0mo	$299,490	$132	55
26803 Scarlet Willow Dr	0.59mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,968 (-9%)	0mo	$275,240	$140	52
4632 Cleo Day Dr	0.68mi	3/2.0	1,859 (-14%)	0mo	$299,990	$161	42

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -26.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.14×
• Total profit: $-76,053
• Equity at exit: $46,953

10-year hold

• IRR: -38.9%
• Equity multiple: -0.33×
• Total profit: $-117,648
• Equity at exit: $27,227

Cash invested: $88,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77493

• Rents YoY: -0.8%
• Active inventory: 2696
• Price-to-rent: 10.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,589 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,651
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$394 /mo · $4,724/yr
• Insurance: −$131
• HOA: −$145
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$544
• Net cashflow: $-276

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,938

Max offer price $274,990

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $78,725
• Closing costs: $9,447
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 30 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
27327 Blue Pool Dr Katy, TX	4.0	3.0	2100	$2,600	$1.24	44d	1	0.19mi
5819 Bright Keel Dr Katy, TX	4.0	3.0	2598	$2,400	$0.92	44d	1	0.21mi
5631 Pearl Vista Dr Katy, TX	4.0	3.0	2039	$3,000	$1.47	21d	1	0.25mi
27507 Hudson Sands Ln Katy, TX	4.0	3.0	2294	$3,000	$1.31	17d	1	0.34mi
27064 Beach Ball Dr Katy, TX	3.0–4.0	2.5–3.5	1705	$2,406	$1.41	1d	25	0.45mi
6303 Marigold Blaze Dr Katy, TX	3.0	2.0	1474	$2,250	$1.53	44d	1	0.52mi
6427 Seafoam Lake Dr Katy, TX	4.0	4.0	2479	$3,000	$1.21	1d	1	0.67mi
3076 Dylan Skyland Dr Katy, TX	4.0	2.5	2240	$3,395	$1.52	24d	1	0.68mi
3056 Sea Turtle Dr Katy, TX	4.0	2.0	1500	$2,200	$1.47	44d	1	0.72mi
3084 Fantasy Terrace Dr Katy, TX	4.0	2.0	2085	$2,325	$1.12	13d	1	0.83mi
3072 Fantasy Terrace Dr Katy, TX	4.0	2.0	2279	$2,550	$1.12	22d	1	0.85mi
3081 Fantasy Terrace Dr Katy, TX	4.0	2.0	1670	$2,275	$1.36	24d	1	0.86mi
3053 Fantasy Terrace Dr Katy, TX	4.0	2.0	2085	$2,440	$1.17	15d	1	0.89mi
3064 Dawn Sound Dr Katy, TX	3.0	2.0	1464	$1,950	$1.33	44d	1	0.90mi
3057 Majestic Sunrise Dr Katy, TX	4.0	2.0	1644	$2,252	$1.37	24d	1	0.97mi
3041 Colusa Ridge Dr Katy, TX	4.0	2.5	2263	$2,500	$1.10	13d	1	0.98mi
3048 Majestic Sunrise Dr Katy, TX	4.0	2.0	1670	$2,275	$1.36	24d	1	1.00mi
3071 Wild Dunes Dr Katy, TX	3.0	2.0	1538	$2,164	$1.41	24d	1	1.01mi
3083 Wild Dunes Dr Katy, TX	3.0	2.0	1538	$2,185	$1.42	13d	1	1.01mi
3020 Wild Dunes Dr Katy, TX	4.0	2.0	1776	$2,355	$1.33	13d	1	1.01mi
1495 Twilight Green Dr Katy, TX	3.0	2.5	2000	$2,400	$1.20	44d	1	1.02mi
3112 Wild Dunes Dr Katy, TX	4.0	2.0	1776	$2,330	$1.31	24d	1	1.04mi
3124 Wild Dunes Dr Katy, TX	4.0	2.0	1776	$2,330	$1.31	24d	1	1.04mi
3136 Wild Dunes Dr Katy, TX	4.0	2.0	1776	$2,355	$1.33	13d	1	1.04mi
3037 Wild Dunes Dr Katy, TX	3.0	2.0	1538	$2,164	$1.41	24d	1	1.05mi
3004 Majestic Sunrise Dr Katy, TX	3.0	2.0	1474	$1,942	$1.32	44d	1	1.05mi
26811 Prairie Smoke Ln Katy, TX	4.0	2.0	1656	$2,250	$1.36	44d	1	1.12mi
26642 Prairie Smoke Ln Katy, TX	3.0	2.0	1949	$2,300	$1.18	44d	1	1.23mi
27035 Beacon Glen Dr Katy, TX	2.0–4.0	2.0–3.0	1890	$3,049	$1.61	1d	16	1.27mi
6758 Sunset Velvet Dr Katy, TX	3.0	2.0	1580	$2,350	$1.49	44d	1	1.42mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $145 · $1,740/yr

Listing history 13 events

1. 2026-05-14
   status Pending 525-char remark

   Show marketing remark (525 chars)

   NO BACK NEIGHBORS! Welcome to the Norman! An impressive kitchen sits at the heart of the home, featuring a center island and spacious pantry. Adjacent to the kitchen is the dining room and great room, with abundant natural lighting. The main level also features a secluded study and powder room, but the star of the show is the primary suite, with a glorious walk-in closet and private bath. The second-floor features two additional bedrooms, a roomy, relaxing loft, and a shared bath to complete this stylish, inviting home.

2. 2026-05-05
   price $314,900 525-char remark

   Show marketing remark (525 chars)

   NO BACK NEIGHBORS! Welcome to the Norman! An impressive kitchen sits at the heart of the home, featuring a center island and spacious pantry. Adjacent to the kitchen is the dining room and great room, with abundant natural lighting. The main level also features a secluded study and powder room, but the star of the show is the primary suite, with a glorious walk-in closet and private bath. The second-floor features two additional bedrooms, a roomy, relaxing loft, and a shared bath to complete this stylish, inviting home.

3. 2026-03-20
   price $339,900 525-char remark

   Show marketing remark (525 chars)

   NO BACK NEIGHBORS! Welcome to the Norman! An impressive kitchen sits at the heart of the home, featuring a center island and spacious pantry. Adjacent to the kitchen is the dining room and great room, with abundant natural lighting. The main level also features a secluded study and powder room, but the star of the show is the primary suite, with a glorious walk-in closet and private bath. The second-floor features two additional bedrooms, a roomy, relaxing loft, and a shared bath to complete this stylish, inviting home.

4. 2026-02-26
   listed $351,900 Active 525-char remark

   Show marketing remark (525 chars)

   NO BACK NEIGHBORS! Welcome to the Norman! An impressive kitchen sits at the heart of the home, featuring a center island and spacious pantry. Adjacent to the kitchen is the dining room and great room, with abundant natural lighting. The main level also features a secluded study and powder room, but the star of the show is the primary suite, with a glorious walk-in closet and private bath. The second-floor features two additional bedrooms, a roomy, relaxing loft, and a shared bath to complete this stylish, inviting home.

5. 2026-02-26
   historical

   Show marketing remark (525 chars)

   NO BACK NEIGHBORS! Welcome to the Norman! An impressive kitchen sits at the heart of the home, featuring a center island and spacious pantry. Adjacent to the kitchen is the dining room and great room, with abundant natural lighting. The main level also features a secluded study and powder room, but the star of the show is the primary suite, with a glorious walk-in closet and private bath. The second-floor features two additional bedrooms, a roomy, relaxing loft, and a shared bath to complete this stylish, inviting home.

6. 2026-02-25
   price $351,900
7. 2025-10-31
   listed $349,900 Active
8. 2025-10-31
   historical
9. 2025-07-13
   price $349,900
10. 2025-06-25
    price $359,900
11. 2025-05-16
    price $374,900
12. 2025-04-27
    price $382,900
13. 2025-04-17
    listed $392,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $31,069
• − Mortgage interest: −$17,639
• − Property taxes: −$4,724
• − Insurance: −$1,574
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,486
• − Management: −$2,486
• − HOA: −$1,740
• − Depreciation: −$9,161
• Taxable loss: −$8,740
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,098
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,212/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 1 photo

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This single-family home is in excellent condition with a good condition score of 80. It is move-in ready with minimal cosmetic improvements needed to enhance its curb appeal and value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting exterior and interior — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics.
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value to the property.
• Both New flooring in high-traffic areas — Improves the home's appearance and adds value for both resale and rental.
• Both New kitchen appliances — Modernizes the kitchen and adds value for both resale and rental.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting exterior and interior — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics. ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value to the property. ↑
• Both New flooring in high-traffic areas — Improves the home's appearance and adds value for both resale and rental. ↑
• Both New kitchen appliances — Modernizes the kitchen and adds value for both resale and rental. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Katy ISD
• NCES district ID: 4825170
• Math proficiency: 61% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 63% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $90,312
• Composite: 56.59/100
• National rank: #1146
• State rank: #29 of 826 in TX

Livability — Katy

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #111
• US rank: #3613

Category grades

Amenities D Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety C User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 413,575
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 71,484
• Household income: $118,464
• Rent vs Own: 20.4% rent · 79.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 913.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.73)
• Race & ethnicity: White 36% Hispanic / Latino 33% Two or more races 16% Black 15% Asian 12%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 20%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Slovak 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 21% · Canada, Vietnam, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 64% English-only · Spanish 22% Vietnamese 5% French/Haitian/Cajun 4%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -140.65%
• Current HPI: 233.1683
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.80%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-19.9% since first listed

13 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-14 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-05-05 Price Changed $314,900 HARMLS
• 2026-03-20 Price Changed $339,900 HARMLS
• 2026-02-26 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2026-02-26 Listed $351,900 HARMLS
• 2026-02-25 Price Changed $351,900 HARMLS
• 2025-10-31 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-10-31 Listed $349,900 HARMLS
• 2025-07-13 Price Changed $349,900 HARMLS
• 2025-06-25 Price Changed $359,900 HARMLS
• 2025-05-16 Price Changed $374,900 HARMLS
• 2025-04-27 Price Changed $382,900 HARMLS
• 2025-04-17 Listed $392,900 HARMLS