21609 Pannill St

Ettrick, VA 23803

$95,000B+

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,256 sqft · Built 1944 · SingleFamily · Active · 99 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,474/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$498
• Tax + insurance: −$154
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$310
• Net cashflow: $512/mo
• Annual: $6,149/yr
• Cap rate: 12.77%
• Cash-on-cash: 23.12%
• DSCR: 2.03
• 1% rule: 1.55%
• Cash to close: $26,600

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $95k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $512 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $95k).
• It's been on market 99 days — a 9% lower offer ($86k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $86k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $2k of equity ($657 loan paydown + $1k appreciation (1.4% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 79/100 on livability (#65 in VA, #2,105 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, health & safety A+, housing A; Watch: commute C-, amenities F, employment D-.
• Chesterfield County Public School District (suburban): math 52% / reading 64% proficiency, ranked #57 of 131 in VA (top 44%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Watch-outs: built in 1944 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.9%/yr); 290 active listings in the ZIP; 33 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 21d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 2,307 units permitted in Chesterfield County in 2024 (462 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Chesterfield County population projected at +20% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (1.4% appreciation + 5.9% rent growth), your $27k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 42% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($58k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 99 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1944 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.