21609 Pannill St · Ettrick, VA 23803

$95,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,256 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 99 Days on market

Built 1944 6,359 sqft lot $76/sqft · 55% below area ↓ 13% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +5.7/10.0
• Schools +5.2/10.0
• Rent growth +4.0/5.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

This 1,256-square-foot traditional ranch features 3 bedrooms, 1 full bath, and lvp/vinyl flooring throughout. The property includes an open porch and a 26'x32' detached garage, all situated in the Ettrick area. Located near Virginia State University and the Appomattox River, this property represents a functional opportunity for a primary residence or a rental addition to a portfolio.

Key facts

• Appomattox river
• Open porch
• Detached garage

Tags

• OPEN PORCH
• DETACHED GARAGE
• APPOMATTOX RIVER

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $95k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $512 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $95k).
• Recommended offer: $86k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 79/100 on livability (#65 in VA, #2,105 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, health & safety A+, housing A; Watch: commute C-, amenities F, employment D-.
• Chesterfield County Public School District (suburban): math 52% / reading 64% proficiency, ranked #57 of 131 in VA (top 44%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.9%/yr); 290 active listings in the ZIP; 33 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 21d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 2,307 units permitted in Chesterfield County in 2024 (462 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($58k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $2k of equity ($657 loan paydown + $1k appreciation (1.4% local appreciation)).
• Chesterfield County population projected at +20% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (1.4% appreciation + 5.9% rent growth), your $27k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 99 days — a 9% lower offer ($86k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1944 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 42% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $86,450 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 99 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1944 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.55% ✓
• Cap rate: 12.77%
• Cash-on-cash: 23.12%
• DSCR: 2.03
• GRM: 5.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $210,965
• List price: $95,000
• Delta: -54.97%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
841 Fort Henry St	0.29mi	3/2.0	1,296 (+3%)	14mo	$225,000	$174	65
21210 Chesterfield Ave	0.18mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,080 (-14%)	0mo	$171,000	$158	63
1224 Mckenzie St	0.47mi	3/1.0	1,320 (+5%)	9mo	$95,000	$72	62
3716 Totty St	0.24mi	3/1.0	1,092 (-13%)	12mo	$156,200	$143	57
20903 Truth Dr	0.64mi	3/2.0	1,292 (+3%)	11mo	$255,000	$197	52
1160 Commerce St	0.61mi	3/2.0	1,155 (-8%)	9mo	$255,000	$221	47
1163 Hinton St	0.63mi	3/2.0	1,404 (+12%)	3mo	$282,000	$201	44
3403 South St	0.68mi	3/2.0	1,368 (+9%)	6mo	$260,000	$190	44
1127 W Washington St	0.66mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,356 (+8%)	11mo	$115,000	$85	42
20801 Attucks Dr	0.74mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,200 (-4%)	15mo	$256,000	$213	36
20805 Attucks Dr	0.71mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,400 (+12%)	3mo	$290,000	$207	36
20412 Loyal Ave	0.74mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,400 (+12%)	12mo	$281,000	$201	27

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

1.45% appreciation · 5.89% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 28.6%
• Equity multiple: 2.54×
• Total profit: $40,948
• Equity at exit: $34,669

10-year hold

• IRR: 32.3%
• Equity multiple: 5.42×
• Total profit: $117,450
• Equity at exit: $47,855

Cash invested: $26,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 23803

• Home prices YoY: 0.3%
• Rents YoY: 5.9%
• Active inventory: 290
• Price-to-rent: 5.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,474 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$498
• Tax from tax record: −$115 /mo · $1,375/yr
• Insurance: −$40
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$310
• Net cashflow: $512

Break-even live

Break-even rent $826

Max offer price $95,000

Occupancy floor 60%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $23,750
• Closing costs: $2,850
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 33 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3301 Main St Unit A South Chesterfield, VA	2.0	1.0	990	$1,150	$1.16	2d	1	0.06mi
3716 Totty St South Chesterfield, VA	3.0	1.0	1092	$1,700	$1.56	44d	1	0.26mi
214 N Dunlop St Apt 305 Petersburg, VA	2.0	2.0	945	$1,350	$1.43	44d	1	0.46mi
214 N Dunlop St Unit 119 Petersburg, VA	2.0	2.0	988	$1,399	$1.42	44d	1	0.46mi
214 N Dunlop St Petersburg, VA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	799	$1,395	$1.74	2d	11	0.46mi
714 High St Apt E Petersburg, VA	2.0	2.0	924	$1,300	$1.41	21d	1	0.50mi
214 N Dunlop St Unit 400 Petersburg, VA	2.0	2.0	892	$1,500	$1.68	44d	1	0.51mi
801 Hinton St Petersburg, VA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	834	$1,399	$1.68	19d	2	0.60mi
801 Hinton St Petersburg, VA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	745	$1,395	$1.87	2d	8	0.60mi
20900 Riverterrace Rd Petersburg, VA	2.0	1.0	950	$1,262	$1.33	2d	4	0.65mi
712 W Washington St Unit B Petersburg, VA	2.0	1.0	1209	$1,250	$1.03	24d	1	0.69mi
406 Bradsher Ave Unit A Colonial Heights, VA	2.0	1.0	940	$1,050	$1.12	24d	1	0.81mi
20304 Loyal Ave South Chesterfield, VA	3.0	1.0	991	$1,650	$1.66	20d	1	0.83mi
115 Pine St Unit 115 Petersburg, VA	3.0	1.5	1400	$1,462	$1.04	44d	1	0.85mi
1137 Willcox St Petersburg, VA	4.0	3.0	1872	$2,600	$1.39	44d	1	0.95mi
408 S West St Petersburg, VA	2.0	1.0	900	$1,095	$1.22	21d	1	0.97mi
109 Perry St Petersburg, VA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	787	$1,577	$2.00	2d	15	0.98mi
16 S Market St Petersburg, VA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	769	$2,312	$3.01	2d	17	0.98mi
325 Brown St Petersburg, VA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	797	$1,395	$1.75	15d	9	1.01mi
325 Brown St Petersburg, VA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	775	$1,310	$1.69	21d	2	1.01mi
114 Lee Ave Colonial Heights, VA	2.0	1.5	1088	$1,750	$1.61	24d	1	1.10mi
30 Franklin St Petersburg, VA	2.0	1.0–2.0	755	$1,550	$2.05	19d	1	1.19mi
211 Jefferson Ave Colonial Heights, VA	4.0	2.0	1507	$1,900	$1.26	2d	1	1.21mi
1740 Randolph Ave Petersburg, VA	4.0	2.0	1400	$2,000	$1.43	10d	1	1.24mi
147 Witten St Petersburg, VA	3.0	1.0	1170	$1,495	$1.28	10d	1	1.30mi
250 E Bank St Petersburg, VA	2.0	1.0–2.0	862	$1,509	$1.75	2d	19	1.32mi
212 E Wythe St Unit 1 Petersburg, VA	4.0	1.5	1400	$1,295	$0.93	24d	1	1.40mi
212 E Wythe St Unit 1 Petersburg, VA	4.0	1.5	1400	$1,295	$0.93	44d	1	1.40mi
110 Grigg St Petersburg, VA	3.0	1.5	1200	$1,600	$1.33	2d	1	1.41mi
20308 Hickory Branch Dr South Chesterfield, VA	3.0	2.0	1484	$1,850	$1.25	3d	1	1.43mi
500 Floral Ave Colonial Heights, VA	3.0	2.0	1196	$1,895	$1.58	24d	1	1.43mi
707 Hamilton Ave Colonial Heights, VA	2.0	1.0	999	$1,325	$1.33	12d	1	1.45mi
838 S Jones St Unit B Petersburg, VA	2.0	1.0	1296	$1,100	$0.85	44d	1	1.47mi

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $95,000 Active 99 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $95,000 Active 98 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $95,000 Active 97 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $95,000 Active 96 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $95,000 Active 94 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $95,000 Active 93 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $95,000 Active 90 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $95,000 Active 89 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $95,000 Active 88 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    remarks 568-char remark
11. 2026-06-05
    pricedays on market $95,000 Active 85 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $194,950 Active 84 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $194,950 Active 83 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $194,950 Active 82 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $194,950 Active 81 DOM
16. 2026-04-23
    price $194,950 387-char remark

    Show marketing remark (387 chars)

    This 1,256-square-foot traditional ranch features 3 bedrooms, 1 full bath, and lvp/vinyl flooring throughout. The property includes an open porch and a 26'x32' detached garage, all situated in the Ettrick area. Located near Virginia State University and the Appomattox River, this property represents a functional opportunity for a primary residence or a rental addition to a portfolio.

17. 2026-04-03
    price $214,950 387-char remark

    Show marketing remark (387 chars)

    This 1,256-square-foot traditional ranch features 3 bedrooms, 1 full bath, and lvp/vinyl flooring throughout. The property includes an open porch and a 26'x32' detached garage, all situated in the Ettrick area. Located near Virginia State University and the Appomattox River, this property represents a functional opportunity for a primary residence or a rental addition to a portfolio.

18. 2026-03-08
    listed $224,950 Active 387-char remark

    Show marketing remark (387 chars)

    This 1,256-square-foot traditional ranch features 3 bedrooms, 1 full bath, and lvp/vinyl flooring throughout. The property includes an open porch and a 26'x32' detached garage, all situated in the Ettrick area. Located near Virginia State University and the Appomattox River, this property represents a functional opportunity for a primary residence or a rental addition to a portfolio.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast VA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,375 · $115/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,375 · $115/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 42% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,693
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,321
• − Property taxes: −$1,375
• − Insurance: −$475
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,415
• − Management: −$1,415
• − Depreciation: −$2,764
• Taxable income: $4,927
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,183
• After-tax cash flow: $4,967/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Chesterfield County Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5100840
• Math proficiency: 52% ▼ -30.00%
• Reading proficiency: 64% ▼ -15.00%
• Median HH income: $72,821
• Composite: 51.56/100
• National rank: #1712
• State rank: #57 of 131 in VA

Livability — Ettrick

• Score: 79/100
• State rank: #65
• US rank: #2105

Category grades

Amenities F Commute C- Cost of living A+ Crime C+ Employment D- Housing A Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Ettrick, VA
• County: Chesterfield County · 406,988 people
• Metro: Richmond, VA
• Population (ZIP): 42,012
• Household income: $57,813
• Rent vs Own: 48.9% rent · 51.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 2485.0

Population outlook (Chesterfield County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 377,190 people
• By 2030: 395,710 · +4.9%
• By 2040: 427,694 · +13.4%
• By 2050: 452,706 · +20.0%
• By 2075: 505,533 · +34.0%
• By 2100: 521,282 · +38.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.57)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 58% White 31% Hispanic / Latino 6% Two or more races 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Italian 1% Romanian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 5%

Political lean MEDSL · Chesterfield

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+9.0) · D 53.8% · R 44.8% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: +16.4pp toward D · 2008: -7.5pp · 2024: 9.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+9.0 2020: D+6.7 2016: R+2.2 2012: R+7.1 2008: R+7.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 1.45%
• Current HPI: 480.5365
• Rent YoY: ▲ 5.89%
• Metro: Richmond, VA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Price history

-13.3% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-23 Price Changed $194,950 CVRMLS
• 2026-04-03 Price Changed $214,950 CVRMLS
• 2026-03-08 Listed $224,950 CVRMLS

Property tax history

+48.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,375 · +1.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.