3385 Black Lick Rd

Rural Retreat, VA 24368

$83,200B+

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,352 sqft · Built 1968 · SingleFamily · Pending · 30 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,500/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$436
• Tax + insurance: −$103
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$315
• Net cashflow: $646/mo
• Annual: $7,748/yr
• Cap rate: 15.61%
• Cash-on-cash: 33.26%
• DSCR: 2.48
• 1% rule: 1.80%
• Cash to close: $23,296

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $83k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $646 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $83k).
• It's been on market 30 days — a 2% lower offer ($82k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $82k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $630 of equity ($575 loan paydown + $55 appreciation (0.1% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#134 in VA, #4,304 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Wythe County Public School District (rural): math 67% / reading 77% proficiency, ranked #20 of 131 in VA (top 15%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical.
• Zoned schools: Rural Retreat Elementary (math 72% / reading 82%, grade A, #171 of 1,108 statewide, top 17%, 362 students, 75% FRL); Rural Retreat Middle (math 73% / reading 80%, grade A, #40 of 342 statewide, top 12%, 231 students, 75% FRL); Rural Retreat High (math 67% / reading 87%, grade A-, #90 of 319 statewide, top 30%, 312 students, 74% FRL) — zoned schools average 75% FRL vs 41% district-wide (34 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 43 active listings in the ZIP; 63 units permitted in Wythe County in 2024 (12 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Wythe County population projected to shrink 7% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (0.1% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $23k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 15.6% vs local median 4.3% in Rural Retreat — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• Built in 1968 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.