3385 Black Lick Rd · Rural Retreat, VA 24368

$83,200

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,352 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 30 Days on market

Built 1968 1.83 ac lot $62/sqft · 61% below area

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +6.0/10.0
• Appreciation +5.0/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

3 BEDROOM ON 1.83 ACRES WAITING FOR YOU TO MAKE IT YOUR HOME. HOME HAS HARD WOOD FLOORS, ENCLOSED CARPORT AND UNFINISHED BASEMENT.

Key facts

• Hard wood floors
• Enclosed carport
• Unfinished basement

Tags

• HARD WOOD FLOORS
• ENCLOSED CARPORT
• UNFINISHED BASEMENT

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $83k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $646 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $83k).
• Recommended offer: $82k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 15.6% vs local median 4.5% in Rural Retreat — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#134 in VA, #4,304 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: schools A+, crime A+, cost of living A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Wythe County Public School District (rural): math 67% / reading 77% proficiency, ranked #20 of 131 in VA (top 15%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical.
• Market conditions: 43 active listings in the ZIP; 63 units permitted in Wythe County in 2024 (12 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $630 of equity ($575 loan paydown + $55 appreciation (0.1% local appreciation)).
• Wythe County population projected to shrink 7% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (0.1% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $23k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 30 days — a 2% lower offer ($82k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $81,952 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1968 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.80% ✓
• Cap rate: 15.61%
• Cash-on-cash: 33.26%
• DSCR: 2.48
• GRM: 4.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $215,831
• List price: $83,200
• Delta: -61.45%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 7 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

0.07% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 34.1%
• Equity multiple: 2.67×
• Total profit: $38,950
• Equity at exit: $24,434

10-year hold

• IRR: 37.4%
• Equity multiple: 5.21×
• Total profit: $98,081
• Equity at exit: $29,592

Cash invested: $23,296 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 24368

• Home prices YoY: 0.0%
• Active inventory: 43
• Price-to-rent: 4.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,500 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$436
• Tax from tax record: −$68 /mo · $822/yr
• Insurance: −$35
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$315
• Net cashflow: $646

Break-even live

Break-even rent $683

Max offer price $83,200

Occupancy floor 52%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $693	-5% $669	+0% $646	+5% $622	+10% $599
Rent	-10% $527	-5% $586	+0% $646	+5% $705	+10% $764
Rate	-1.0pp $688	-0.5pp $667	base $646	+0.5pp $624	+1.0pp $602

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $20,800
• Closing costs: $2,496
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 1 events

1. 2026-04-21
   listed $83,200 Active 130-char remark

   Show marketing remark (130 chars)

   3 BEDROOM ON 1.83 ACRES WAITING FOR YOU TO MAKE IT YOUR HOME. HOME HAS HARD WOOD FLOORS, ENCLOSED CARPORT AND UNFINISHED BASEMENT.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast VA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $822 · $68/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $822 · $68/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · -0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥92°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,002
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,660
• − Property taxes: −$822
• − Insurance: −$416
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,440
• − Management: −$1,440
• − Depreciation: −$2,420
• Taxable income: $6,803
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,633
• After-tax cash flow: $6,115/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Wythe County Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5104110
• Math proficiency: 67% ▼ -23.00%
• Reading proficiency: 77% ▼ -9.00%
• Median HH income: $41,665
• Composite: 60.19/100
• National rank: #863
• State rank: #20 of 131 in VA

Livability — Rural Retreat

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #134
• US rank: #4304

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 5,372

Population outlook (Wythe County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 29,176 people
• By 2030: 28,993 · -0.6%
• By 2040: 28,273 · -3.1%
• By 2050: 27,055 · -7.3%
• By 2075: 23,668 · -18.9%
• By 2100: 18,904 · -35.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (94%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 94% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 3%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 2% Italian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 1%
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Wythe

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+59.5) · D 19.9% · R 79.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -26.7pp toward R · 2008: -32.8pp · 2024: -59.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+59.5 2020: R+57.0 2016: R+54.9 2012: R+36.8 2008: R+32.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 0.07%
• Current HPI: 188.0572
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-04-21 Listed $83,200 SWVAR

Property tax history

+5.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $822 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.