450 Ferrule Dr

Kyle, TX 78640

$215,000D-

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,360 sqft · Built 2020 · SingleFamily · Pending · 13 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,871/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,127
• Tax + insurance: −$655
• HOA: −$45
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$393
• Net cashflow: $-349/mo
• Annual: $-4,194/yr
• Cap rate: 4.34%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.97%
• DSCR: 0.69
• 1% rule: 0.87%
• Cash to close: $60,200

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $215k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-349 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $153k (28.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $187k (13.0% below list).
• Only 13 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $153k (28.7% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#138 in TX, #3,993 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, health & safety A+, employment A; Watch: schools D, amenities F, commute F.
• Hays CISD (rural): math 35% / reading 41% proficiency, ranked #390 of 826 in TX (top 47%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.2% of price.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.3%/yr); 1801 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 18d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 5,270 units permitted in Hays County in 2024 (1,464 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Hays County population projected at +93% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 2 sale attempts since 6y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 4.3% vs local median 3.3% in Kyle — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.