450 Ferrule Dr · Kyle, TX 78640

$215,000

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,360 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 13 Days on market

Built 2020 4,399 sqft lot $158/sqft · 26% below area Est $290k · 26% under $45/mo HOA · 2% of rent ↓ 7% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +6.6/30.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• 1% rule +3.7/10.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.4/5.0
• DSCR +0.9/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This home is overlooking an open prairie and just steps away from the Linebarger Lake. Hays High School and direct access to Lake Kyle and the Plum Creek Preserve. This home is a corner location, has a large country kitchen open to the great room and breakfast area. Master suite has 2 closets, private bath with 5 ft shower. It's a must see!!!Restrictions: Yes

Key facts

• Serene views
• Attached rear garage
• Corner lot

Tags

• CORNER LOT
• SERENE VIEWS
• SURROUNDING PASTURES
• SPACIOUS MAIN FLOOR
• ATTACHED REAR GARAGE

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Homeowners association: Creekside Association; Association fee $135 quarterly; Association covers common area maintenance; Community amenities: common grounds, lake, playground, park, trails/paths

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage facing front; 2 covered parking spaces (2 total)
• Security: Smoke detector(s)
• Utilities: Electricity available; Natural gas available; Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Two-story home; Resale property; Faces east
• Construction: HardiPlank type siding; Composition roof; Slab foundation; Built by Bigelow (year built per public records)
• Exterior features: Fenced yard (vinyl); Level lot; Small trees; Has view; Smoke detector(s)

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Free-standing range; Microwave; Disposal; Gas water heater
• Flooring: Carpet; Tile
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Breakfast bar; Recessed lighting; Walk-in closet(s); Double pane windows
• Laundry & utility: Main level laundry room

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $215k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-349 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $153k (28.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $187k (13.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $153k (28.7% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 4.3% vs local median 3.3% in Kyle — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#138 in TX, #3,993 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, health & safety A+, employment A; Watch: schools D, amenities F, commute F.
• Hays CISD (rural): math 35% / reading 41% proficiency, ranked #390 of 826 in TX (top 47%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.3%/yr); 1801 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 18d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 5,270 units permitted in Hays County in 2024 (1,464 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Hays County population projected at +93% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 13 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts since 6y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.2% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $153,266 (28.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.87% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.34%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.97%
• DSCR: 0.69
• GRM: 9.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $290,027
• List price: $215,000
• Delta: -25.87%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
680 Ferrule Dr	0.14mi	3/2.5	1,360 (0%)	3mo	$219,763	$162	91
656 Ferrule Dr	0.12mi	3/2.5	1,360 (0%)	7mo	$229,750	$169	89
611 Masonwood Dr	0.63mi	3/2.0	1,373 (+1%)	5mo	$230,000	$168	63
219 Musgrav	0.68mi	3/2.0	1,439 (+6%)	7mo	$240,000	$167	51
292 Langely	0.74mi	3/2.0	1,439 (+6%)	5mo	$250,000	$174	50
358 Spring	0.39mi	3/2.0	1,551 (+14%)	9mo	$175,000	$113	48
360 Atlantis	0.47mi	3/2.0	1,159 (-15%)	10mo	$186,200	$161	43
201 Wild Buffalo Dr	0.73mi	3/2.0	1,500 (+10%)	6mo	$274,400	$183	42
424 Atlantis	0.49mi	3/2.0	1,159 (-15%)	11mo	$235,000	$203	41
440 Zebra Dr	0.74mi	3/2.0	1,525 (+12%)	3mo	$259,900	$170	41
271 Endeavour	0.73mi	3/2.0	1,468 (+8%)	12mo	$185,000	$126	40
168 Voyager Cv	0.73mi	3/2.0	1,158 (-15%)	10mo	$235,000	$203	31

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -32.6%
• Equity multiple: -0.04×
• Total profit: $-62,341
• Equity at exit: $32,057

10-year hold

• IRR: -67.9%
• Equity multiple: -0.71×
• Total profit: $-103,166
• Equity at exit: $18,589

Cash invested: $60,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78640

• Home prices YoY: -33.8%
• Rents YoY: -0.3%
• Active inventory: 1801
• Price-to-rent: 9.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,871 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,127
• Tax from tax record: −$565 /mo · $6,784/yr
• Insurance: −$90
• HOA: −$45
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$393
• Net cashflow: $-349

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,313

Max offer price $153,266

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $53,750
• Closing costs: $6,450
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1628 Arbor Knot Dr Kyle, TX	3.0	2.0	1620	$2,180	$1.35	43d	1	0.13mi
1561 Arbor Knot Dr Kyle, TX	2.0	2.0	1195	$1,750	$1.46	2d	1	0.13mi
1180 Arbor Knot Dr Kyle, TX	4.0	2.0	1822	$1,999	$1.10	4d	1	0.30mi
112 Lakeview Ct Kyle, TX	3.0	2.5	1765	$1,795	$1.02	4d	1	0.44mi
106 Lakeview Ct Kyle, TX	3.0	2.5	1765	$1,795	$1.02	17d	1	0.44mi
149 Creekside Villa Dr Kyle, TX	3.0	2.0	1266	$1,495	$1.18	14d	1	0.45mi
155 Creekside Villa Dr Kyle, TX	3.0	2.0	1266	$1,695	$1.34	23d	1	0.46mi
155 Creekside Villa Dr Kyle, TX	3.0	2.0	1266	$1,695	$1.34	4d	1	0.46mi
155 Creekside Villa Dr Kyle, TX	3.0	2.0	1266	$1,495	$1.18	14d	1	0.46mi
185 Creekside Villa Dr Kyle, TX	3.0	2.5	1463	$1,700	$1.16	14d	1	0.48mi
125 Voyager Cv Kyle, TX	3.0	2.0	1476	$1,800	$1.22	43d	1	0.71mi
526 Harvest Moon Pkwy Kyle, TX	3.0–4.0	2.0–3.0	1624	$1,399	$0.86	1d	1	0.73mi
211 Wild Buffalo Dr Kyle, TX	3.0	2.0	1180	$1,595	$1.35	16d	1	0.74mi
211 Wild Buffalo Dr Kyle, TX	3.0	2.0	1180	$1,595	$1.35	17d	1	0.74mi
211 Wild Buffalo Dr Kyle, TX	3.0	2.0	1180	$1,595	$1.35	23d	1	0.74mi
431 Primrose Blvd Kyle, TX	3.0	2.0	1611	$1,695	$1.05	3d	1	0.74mi
410 Masonwood Dr Kyle, TX	3.0	2.0	1341	$1,797	$1.34	43d	1	0.83mi
376 Musgrav Kyle, TX	3.0	2.0	1476	$1,988	$1.35	16d	1	0.84mi
351 Zebra Dr Kyle, TX	3.0	2.0	1207	$1,995	$1.65	23d	1	0.84mi
1579 Violet Ln Kyle, TX	3.0	2.5	1426	$1,750	$1.23	23d	1	0.85mi
140 Llama Loop Kyle, TX	3.0	2.0	1335	$1,695	$1.27	43d	1	0.86mi
1685 Twin Cv Kyle, TX	3.0	2.0	1740	$2,200	$1.26	43d	1	0.87mi
184 Unity Kyle, TX	4.0	2.5	1704	$2,000	$1.17	43d	1	0.87mi
120 Llama Loop Kyle, TX	3.0	2.0	1580	$1,900	$1.20	17d	1	0.88mi
2681 Winding Creek Rd Kyle, TX	3.0	2.0	1754	$1,875	$1.07	43d	1	0.94mi
273 Tower Dr Kyle, TX	3.0	2.0	1252	$1,795	$1.43	17d	1	0.96mi
240 New Country Rd Kyle, TX	3.0	2.0	1106	$1,650	$1.49	11d	1	0.98mi
240 New Country Rd Kyle, TX	3.0	2.0	1106	$1,650	$1.49	1d	1	0.98mi
133 Fabion St Kyle, TX	4.0	2.0	1681	$2,195	$1.31	17d	1	1.00mi
205 Beech Dr Kyle, TX	3.0	2.0	1359	$1,825	$1.34	43d	1	1.00mi
205 Beech Dr Kyle, TX	3.0	2.0	1359	$1,795	$1.32	4d	1	1.00mi
187 Rummel Dr Kyle, TX	3.0	2.0	1240	$1,795	$1.45	43d	1	1.00mi
1477 Treeta Trl Kyle, TX	3.0	2.0	1560	$1,759	$1.13	21d	1	1.02mi
164 Fabion St Kyle, TX	3.0	2.0	1437	$1,799	$1.25	14d	1	1.02mi
410 Tower Dr Kyle, TX	3.0	2.5	1665	$1,795	$1.08	43d	1	1.03mi
850 Bunton Reserve Blvd Kyle, TX	3.0	2.0	1109	$1,800	$1.62	23d	1	1.04mi
232 Voss Kyle, TX	3.0	2.0	1467	$1,895	$1.29	4d	1	1.04mi
1437 Treeta Trl Kyle, TX	3.0	2.0	1262	$1,895	$1.50	43d	1	1.05mi
196 Fabion St Kyle, TX	3.0	2.0	1326	$1,850	$1.40	23d	1	1.06mi
200 Philomena Dr Kyle, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	994	$1,980	$1.99	1d	24	1.06mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $45 · $540/yr

Listing history 9 events

1. 2026-05-11
   status Pending 568-char remark
2. 2026-04-28
   listed $215,000 Active 568-char remark
3. 2022-03-17
   price $1,800
4. 2020-12-15
   soldstatus Closed 361-char remark

   Show marketing remark (361 chars)

   This home is overlooking an open prairie and just steps away from the Linebarger Lake. Hays High School and direct access to Lake Kyle and the Plum Creek Preserve. This home is a corner location, has a large country kitchen open to the great room and breakfast area. Master suite has 2 closets, private bath with 5 ft shower. It's a must see!!!Restrictions: Yes

5. 2020-11-06
   status Pending 361-char remark

   Show marketing remark (361 chars)

   This home is overlooking an open prairie and just steps away from the Linebarger Lake. Hays High School and direct access to Lake Kyle and the Plum Creek Preserve. This home is a corner location, has a large country kitchen open to the great room and breakfast area. Master suite has 2 closets, private bath with 5 ft shower. It's a must see!!!Restrictions: Yes

6. 2020-10-09
   price $245,895 361-char remark

   Show marketing remark (361 chars)

   This home is overlooking an open prairie and just steps away from the Linebarger Lake. Hays High School and direct access to Lake Kyle and the Plum Creek Preserve. This home is a corner location, has a large country kitchen open to the great room and breakfast area. Master suite has 2 closets, private bath with 5 ft shower. It's a must see!!!Restrictions: Yes

7. 2020-08-15
   price $238,858 361-char remark

   Show marketing remark (361 chars)

   This home is overlooking an open prairie and just steps away from the Linebarger Lake. Hays High School and direct access to Lake Kyle and the Plum Creek Preserve. This home is a corner location, has a large country kitchen open to the great room and breakfast area. Master suite has 2 closets, private bath with 5 ft shower. It's a must see!!!Restrictions: Yes

8. 2020-07-24
   price $234,858 361-char remark

   Show marketing remark (361 chars)

   This home is overlooking an open prairie and just steps away from the Linebarger Lake. Hays High School and direct access to Lake Kyle and the Plum Creek Preserve. This home is a corner location, has a large country kitchen open to the great room and breakfast area. Master suite has 2 closets, private bath with 5 ft shower. It's a must see!!!Restrictions: Yes

9. 2020-07-06
   listed $230,655 Active 361-char remark

   Show marketing remark (361 chars)

   This home is overlooking an open prairie and just steps away from the Linebarger Lake. Hays High School and direct access to Lake Kyle and the Plum Creek Preserve. This home is a corner location, has a large country kitchen open to the great room and breakfast area. Master suite has 2 closets, private bath with 5 ft shower. It's a must see!!!Restrictions: Yes

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $6,784 · $565/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $6,784 · $565/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,449
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,043
• − Property taxes: −$6,784
• − Insurance: −$1,075
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,796
• − Management: −$1,796
• − HOA: −$540
• − Depreciation: −$6,255
• Taxable loss: −$7,839
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,881
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,312/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hays CISD
• NCES district ID: 4800010
• Math proficiency: 35% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 41% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $70,570
• Composite: 34.78/100
• National rank: #5118
• State rank: #390 of 826 in TX

Livability — Kyle

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #138
• US rank: #3993

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A Crime A- Employment A Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Kyle, TX
• County: Hays County · 280,138 people
• City population: 77,531
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• Population (ZIP): 77,531
• Household income: $90,075
• Rent vs Own: 29.0% rent · 71.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 2552.0

Population outlook (Hays County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 286,948 people
• By 2030: 336,923 · +17.4%
• By 2040: 441,894 · +54.0%
• By 2050: 553,462 · +92.9%
• By 2075: 838,261 · +192.1%
• By 2100: 1,063,658 · +270.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 55% White 36% Two or more races 29% Black 5% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 47% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Slovak 2% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 13% · Canada
• Languages at home: 63% English-only · Spanish 35%

Political lean MEDSL · Hays

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.7) · D 52.1% · R 46.5% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.7pp toward D · 2008: -2.0pp · 2024: 5.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.7 2020: D+10.8 2016: R+0.9 2012: R+10.4 2008: R+2.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -92.64%
• Current HPI: 181.7969
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.34%
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-6.8% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-16 Sold (MLS) — Unlock MLS
• 2026-05-11 Pending — Unlock MLS
• 2026-04-28 Listed $215,000 Unlock MLS
• 2022-03-17 Price Changed $1,800 RENT.
• 2020-12-15 Sold (MLS) — Unlock MLS
• 2020-11-06 Pending — Unlock MLS
• 2020-10-09 Price Changed $245,895 Unlock MLS
• 2020-08-15 Price Changed $238,858 Unlock MLS
• 2020-07-24 Price Changed $234,858 Unlock MLS
• 2020-07-06 Listed $230,655 Unlock MLS

Property tax history

+50.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $6,784 · +8.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.