3 bd · 2.0 ba ·
1,778 sqft ·
Built 1998
· Manufactured
· Active
· 141 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$2,730/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$729
Tax + insurance
−$134
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$573
Net cashflow
$1,294/mo
Annual
$15,522/yr
Cap rate
17.46%
Cash-on-cash
39.88%
DSCR
2.77
1% rule
1.96%
Cash to close
$38,920
Investor read
This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $139k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($16k/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $139k).
It's been on market 141 days — a 12% lower offer ($122k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $122k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $961 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 70/100 on livability (#244 in WA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+; Watch: cost of living C-, health & safety C-, amenities F.
Yelm School District (rural): math 48% / reading 59% proficiency, ranked #108 of 291 in WA (top 37%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.8%/yr); 431 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 1,222 units permitted in Thurston County in 2024 (508 in 5+ unit buildings).
Thurston County population projected at +27% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 5.8% rent growth), your $39k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
Cap rate 17.5% vs local median 3.6% in Yelm — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
This rent runs 36% of the median local income ($92k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.
Questions for listing agent
It's been on market 141 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
CashFlowRE · CFR-J0QTG35J0BY9AH
· Data 2 weeks agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29