17114 153rd Ave SE #17 · Yelm, WA 98597

$139,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,778 sqft · Manufactured public records · 141 Days on market

Built 1998 ↓ 13% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.8/10.0
• Rent growth +3.9/5.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

This well-maintained 3-bedroom, 2-bath double-wide manufactured home is in the beautiful Lake Lawrence Mobile Home Park, suitable for all ages, and is located on more than 20 acres in the Lake Lawrence area, just 10 minutes from downtown Yelm and 4 minutes from Lake Lawrence. This home offers a comfortable and functional layout with spacious living areas, a well-sized kitchen, and a private primary suite with its own bathroom. It's situated on a corner lot with a beautiful view of 10 acres, and has a carport with storage. The monthly space rent of $925 includes septic and garbage services. Home is being sold AS-IS.

Key facts

• Corner lot
• Carport with storage
• 2 parking spots

Tags

• CORNER LOT
• CARPORT WITH STORAGE

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Land lease amount applies
• Financial info: Listing available for Cash or Conventional terms
• HOA & community: Located in Lake Lawrence Mobile Home Park (park approved for sale); Common area; Pets allowed: cats and dogs; Approximately 42 homes in the park; Land lease

Exterior

• Parking: Carport
• Utilities: Electric power; Community water; Septic sewer; Cable (Comcast); Internet (Comcast)
• Home design: Manufactured double-wide home (Moduline); One level; Good condition; Skirted with metal; Composition roof; Tie-down foundation
• Construction: Wood construction
• Exterior features: Wood exterior products; Corner lot; Paved lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Microwave; Refrigerator; Stove/Range
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Flooring: Laminate; Carpet
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Heat pump for heating and cooling; Double pane windows
• Interior features: Water heater; Jetted/soaking tub; Skylights; Vaulted ceilings; Bath off primary
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer; Utility room

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $139k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($16k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $139k).
• Recommended offer: $122k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 17.5% vs local median 3.6% in Yelm — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#244 in WA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+; Watch: cost of living C-, health & safety C-, amenities F.
• Yelm School District (rural): math 48% / reading 59% proficiency, ranked #108 of 291 in WA (top 37%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.8%/yr); 431 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 1,222 units permitted in Thurston County in 2024 (508 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 36% of the median local income ($92k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $961 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Thurston County population projected at +27% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 5.8% rent growth), your $39k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 141 days — a 12% lower offer ($122k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $122,320 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 141 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.96% ✓
• Cap rate: 17.46%
• Cash-on-cash: 39.88%
• DSCR: 2.77
• GRM: 4.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $540,512
• Comps found: 2

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
15140 Vail Rd SE	0.59mi	3/2.0	1,726 (-3%)	11mo	$525,000	$304	58
15412 Westshore Dr SE	0.41mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,568 (-12%)	12mo	$250,950	$160	46

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 5.78% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 39.2%
• Equity multiple: 2.74×
• Total profit: $67,692
• Equity at exit: $20,725

10-year hold

• IRR: 46.9%
• Equity multiple: 6.11×
• Total profit: $199,053
• Equity at exit: $12,018

Cash invested: $38,920 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 28 Tenant-Leaning
• State Washington: 28 Tenant-Leaning · D+8
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Just-cause statewide (2021); Seattle layers rent control restrictions + relocation assistance; very tenant-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 98597

• Rents YoY: 5.8%
• Active inventory: 431
• Price-to-rent: 4.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,730 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$729
• Tax from tax record: −$76 /mo · $917/yr
• Insurance: −$58
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$573
• Net cashflow: $1,294

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,093

Max offer price $139,000

Occupancy floor 48%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,372	-5% $1,333	+0% $1,294	+5% $1,254	+10% $1,215
Rent	-10% $1,078	-5% $1,186	+0% $1,294	+5% $1,401	+10% $1,509
Rate	-1.0pp $1,364	-0.5pp $1,329	base $1,294	+0.5pp $1,258	+1.0pp $1,221

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $34,750
• Closing costs: $4,170
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-06-02
   days on market $139,000 Active 141 DOM
2. 2026-06-01
   days on market $139,000 Active 140 DOM
3. 2026-05-31
   days on market $139,000 Active 139 DOM
4. 2026-05-30
   days on market $139,000 Active 138 DOM
5. 2026-04-15
   price $139,000
6. 2026-03-12
   price $149,000
7. 2026-01-12
   listed $159,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast WA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $917 · $76/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,362 · $114/mo
• Expected delta: +$445/yr (+$37/mo · 48.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥88°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 6/10 Major 7 unhealthy d/yr today · 9 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $32,762
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,786
• − Property taxes: −$917
• − Insurance: −$695
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,621
• − Management: −$2,621
• − Depreciation: −$4,044
• Taxable income: $14,078
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$3,379
• After-tax cash flow: $12,144/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Yelm School District
• NCES district ID: 5310140
• Math proficiency: 48% ▲ 1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 59% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $58,328
• Composite: 48.34/100
• National rank: #4685
• State rank: #108 of 291 in WA

Livability — Yelm

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #244
• US rank: #7737

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living C- Crime C+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Thurston County · 269,345 people
• City population: 26,669
• Metro: Olympia-Lacey-Tumwater, WA
• Population (ZIP): 26,669
• Household income: $92,219
• Rent vs Own: 21.8% rent · 78.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 259.0

Population outlook (Thurston County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 308,239 people
• By 2030: 326,483 · +5.9%
• By 2040: 359,890 · +16.8%
• By 2050: 391,800 · +27.1%
• By 2075: 468,024 · +51.8%
• By 2100: 519,890 · +68.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (76%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 76% Two or more races 10% Hispanic / Latino 10% Black 3% Pacific Islander 2% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 7% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 5% Romanian 4% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Spanish 6% German/W. Germanic 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Thurston

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+20.4) · D 58.5% · R 38.1% · Other 3.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -1.3pp toward R · 2008: 21.7pp · 2024: 20.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+20.4 2020: D+18.6 2016: D+15.4 2012: D+19.0 2008: D+21.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -192.07%
• Current HPI: 326.4361
• Rent YoY: ▲ 5.78%
• Metro: Olympia-Lacey-Tumwater, WA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.65%
• F500 in state: 22

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in WA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Retail	2	$269B
▸Technology / Retail	1	$638B
▸Technology	1	$245B
▸Telecommunications	1	$38B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$36B
▸Automotive / Trucks	1	$34B

Price history

-12.6% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-15 Price Changed $139,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-12 Price Changed $149,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-12 Listed $159,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+3.4%/yr

Latest (2026): $917 · -12.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.