4913 72nd Ct E

Lakewood Ranch, FL 34203

$299,900C

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,290 sqft · Built 1995 · SingleFamily · Pending · 4 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,842/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,573
• Tax + insurance: −$655
• HOA: −$60
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$597
• Net cashflow: $-43/mo
• Annual: $-515/yr
• Cap rate: 7.83%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.48%
• DSCR: 1.24
• 1% rule: 0.95%
• Cash to close: $83,972

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $300k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-43 ($-515/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $292k (2.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $284k (5.3% below list).
• Only 4 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $284k (5.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Manatee (suburban): math 54% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #26 of 73 in FL (top 36%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Tara Elementary School (math 79% / reading 66%, grade A, #281 of 2,144 statewide, top 13%, 559 students, 52% FRL); Braden River Middle School (math 54% / reading 47%, grade C, #246 of 571 statewide, top 44%, 810 students, 58% FRL); Braden River High School (math 44% / reading 52%, grade D, #201 of 667 statewide, top 30%, 1,774 students, 45% FRL) — zoned schools at 51% FRL track the district average.
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.0%/yr); 387 active listings in the ZIP; 18 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 7,472 units permitted in Manatee County in 2024 (1,782 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Manatee County population projected at +43% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• Current owner paid $118k; list at $300k implies a 154% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→28/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 7.8% vs local median 3.3% in Lakewood Ranch — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• At $2,842/mo this rent would consume 48% of the median local household income ($71k/yr) (locally 1469% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.