4913 72nd Ct E · Lakewood Ranch, FL 34203

$299,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,290 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 4 Days on market

Built 1995 6,621 sqft lot Est $348k · 14% under $60/mo HOA · 2% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +20.3/30.0
• ARV discount +13.8/15.0
• DSCR +6.4/10.0
• 1% rule +4.5/10.0
• Schools +4.4/10.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.3/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Under contract-accepting backup offers. Welcome to Creekwood Lakeside! Priced to sell, this home is ready for a MAKEOVER and a fantastic opportunity to create your own style and enjoy the charm of one of the area’s most desirable communities. From the moment you walk in, you’re greeted by a spacious living and dining area filled with natural light, offering a warm and inviting feel. The bright kitchen provides plenty of cabinet space and generous countertops, perfect for everyday living and ready for your personal touch. The roof is 2015. The home features a large primary suite with a spacious bedroom and bath, while the split floor plan offers privacy with two guest bedrooms a

Key facts

• Bright kitchen
• Natural landscaping
• Pickleball courts

Tags

• BRIGHT KITCHEN
• COVERED PATIO
• MATURE TREES
• NATURAL LANDSCAPING
• COMMUNITY POOL
• PICKLEBALL COURTS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $300k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-43 ($-515/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $292k (2.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $284k (5.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $284k (5.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.8% vs local median 3.3% in Lakewood Ranch — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Manatee (suburban): math 54% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #26 of 73 in FL (top 36%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Tara Elementary School (math 79% / reading 66%, grade A, #281 of 2,144 statewide, top 13%, 559 students, 52% FRL); Braden River Middle School (math 54% / reading 47%, grade C, #246 of 571 statewide, top 44%, 810 students, 58% FRL); Braden River High School (math 44% / reading 52%, grade D, #201 of 667 statewide, top 30%, 1,774 students, 45% FRL) — zoned schools at 51% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.0%/yr); 387 active listings in the ZIP; 18 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 7,472 units permitted in Manatee County in 2024 (1,782 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $2,842/mo this rent would consume 48% of the median local household income ($71k/yr) (locally 1469% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Manatee County population projected at +43% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 4 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Current owner paid $118k; list at $300k implies a 154% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→28/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $284,153 (5.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.95% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.83%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.48%
• DSCR: 1.24
• GRM: 8.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $348,300
• Comps found: 8

Show comp detail 8 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4913 72nd Ct E	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,290 (0%)	1mo	$300,000	$233	99
7113 52nd Dr E	0.24mi	3/2.0	1,339 (+4%)	1mo	$420,000	$314	82
5009 72nd Ct E	0.12mi	3/2.0	1,407 (+9%)	11mo	$354,900	$252	70
7807 E 50th Pl	0.47mi	3/2.0	1,400 (+8%)	2mo	$310,000	$221	63
4636 72nd Ct E	0.30mi	3/2.0	1,405 (+9%)	12mo	$380,000	$270	61
4910 78th St E	0.42mi	3/2.0	1,408 (+9%)	7mo	$402,000	$286	60
7806 50th Pl E	0.46mi	3/2.0	1,372 (+6%)	18mo	$355,000	$259	53
5012 79th St E	0.45mi	3/2.0	1,416 (+10%)	24mo	$430,000	$304	43

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -21.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.29×
• Total profit: $-59,483
• Equity at exit: $44,716

10-year hold

• IRR: -24.8%
• Equity multiple: -0.03×
• Total profit: $-86,787
• Equity at exit: $25,930

Cash invested: $83,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34203

• Home prices YoY: -24.5%
• Rents YoY: -1.0%
• Active inventory: 387
• Price-to-rent: 8.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,842 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,573
• Tax from tax record: −$104 /mo · $1,242/yr
• Insurance: −$125
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$427 /mo · $5,118/yr
• HOA: −$60
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$597
• Net cashflow: $-43

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,896

Max offer price $292,317

Occupancy floor 97%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $127	-5% $42	+0% $-43	+5% $-128	+10% $-213
Rent	-10% $-267	-5% $-155	+0% $-43	+5% $69	+10% $182
Rate	-1.0pp $108	-0.5pp $33	base $-43	+0.5pp $-121	+1.0pp $-200

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $74,975
• Closing costs: $8,997
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 18 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
7224 49th Ave E Bradenton, FL	3.0	2.0	1349	$3,000	$2.22	25d	1	0.09mi
4637 72nd Ct E Bradenton, FL	3.0	2.0	1535	$2,650	$1.73	4d	1	0.29mi
6758 Fairview Ter Bradenton, FL	2.0	2.0	1346	$2,300	$1.71	25d	1	0.63mi
6870 Fairview Ter #6870 Bradenton, FL	2.0	2.0	1346	$2,200	$1.63	17d	1	0.65mi
6872 Fairview Ter #101 Bradenton, FL	2.0	2.0	1352	$2,000	$1.48	25d	1	0.65mi
6807 Stone River Rd #202 Bradenton, FL	2.0	2.0	1292	$3,500	$2.71	17d	1	0.76mi
6713 Stone River Rd #202 Bradenton, FL	2.0	2.0	1232	$1,900	$1.54	25d	1	0.81mi
6505 Stone River Rd Bradenton, FL	2.0	2.0	1080	$2,825	$2.62	17d	3	0.81mi
6503 Fairway Gardens Dr Unit Available Bradenton, FL	2.0	2.0	1346	$2,200	$1.63	25d	1	0.87mi
5414 Fair Oaks St Unit 10-D Bradenton, FL	2.0	2.0	1004	$1,995	$1.99	5d	1	0.90mi
6501 Stone River Rd Unit Available Bradenton, FL	2.0	2.0	1118	$2,200	$1.97	25d	1	0.91mi
6501 Stone River Rd Bradenton, FL	2.0	2.0	1080	$2,820	$2.61	17d	2	0.91mi
5515 Fair Oaks St Unit 5515 Bradenton, FL	2.0	2.0	1004	$2,000	$1.99	25d	1	1.01mi
5808 Nesters Ln Bradenton, FL	3.0	2.0	1645	$5,000	$3.04	25d	1	1.05mi
8512 54th Avenue Cir E Bradenton, FL	2.0	2.0	1114	$2,400	$2.15	20d	1	1.11mi
7269 Fountain Palm Cir Bradenton, FL	3.0	2.0	1617	$2,300	$1.42	25d	1	1.11mi
6055 Wingspan Way Bradenton, FL	3.0	2.0	1643	$2,500	$1.52	25d	1	1.12mi
6738 Peach Tree Creek Rd Bradenton, FL	2.0	2.0	1838	$6,200	$3.37	25d	1	1.38mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $60 · $720/yr

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-04-22
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-18
   listed $299,900 Active
3. 2000-10-31
   soldstatus $117,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,242 · $104/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,489 · $207/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,247/yr (+$104/mo · 100.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone AE · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 28 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $34,098
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,799
• − Property taxes: −$1,242
• − Insurance: −$6,618
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,728
• − Management: −$2,728
• − HOA: −$720
• − Depreciation: −$8,724
• Taxable loss: −$5,461
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,311
• After-tax cash flow: $796/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Manatee
• NCES district ID: 1201230
• Math proficiency: 54% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $49,607
• Composite: 44.43/100
• National rank: #2806
• State rank: #26 of 73 in FL

Livability — Lakewood Ranch

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• County: Manatee County · 416,364 people
• City population: 52,177
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• Population (ZIP): 40,618
• Household income: $70,761
• Rent vs Own: 27.3% rent · 72.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 1469.0

Population outlook (Manatee County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 447,342 people
• By 2030: 488,911 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 567,934 · +27.0%
• By 2050: 637,995 · +42.6%
• By 2075: 781,970 · +74.8%
• By 2100: 848,272 · +89.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (65%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 65% Hispanic / Latino 19% Two or more races 12% Black 9% Asian 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 9% Puerto Rican 3% Cuban 2% Dominican 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Romanian 3% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 17% · Canada, Vietnam, Dominican Republic
• Languages at home: 76% English-only · Spanish 16% Vietnamese 2% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Manatee

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+23.5) · D 37.9% · R 61.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.5pp toward R · 2008: -7.0pp · 2024: -23.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+23.5 2020: R+16.1 2016: R+17.1 2012: R+12.5 2008: R+7.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -95.87%
• Current HPI: 295.8871
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.97%
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+154.4% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-22 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-18 Listed $299,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2000-10-31 Sold (Public Records) $117,900 Public Records

Property tax history

+1.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,242 · -1.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.