3 bd · 2.5 ba ·
1,134 sqft ·
Built 1970
· SingleFamily
· Active
· 58 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$1,315/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$810
Tax + insurance
−$162
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$276
Net cashflow
$67/mo
Annual
$807/yr
Cap rate
6.81%
Cash-on-cash
1.86%
DSCR
1.08
1% rule
0.85%
Cash to close
$43,260
Investor read
This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $154k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $67 ($807/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $132k (14.9% below list).
It's been on market 58 days — a 3% lower offer ($150k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $132k (14.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
In year one you build about $8k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $7k appreciation (4.3% local appreciation)).
Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
Bibb County (urban): math 11% / reading 18% proficiency, ranked #161 of 174 in GA (top 92%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 75% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
Zoned schools: Bernd Elementary School (math 8% / reading 12%, grade F, #1,092 of 1,228 statewide, top 91%, 415 students, 100% FRL); Appling Middle School (math 7% / reading 14%, grade F, #429 of 470 statewide, top 91%, 648 students, 100% FRL); Northeast High School (math 2% / reading 5%, grade F, #413 of 424 statewide, top 99%, 742 students, 100% FRL) — zoned schools average 100% FRL vs 75% district-wide (25 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+10.8%/yr); 123 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 16d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 154 units permitted in Bibb County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
Bibb County population projected at -12% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
6 sale attempts since 3y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $15k (9%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
At projected returns (4.3% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $43k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
By year 5, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$33k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 73% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Cap rate 6.8% vs local median 5.5% in Macon-Bibb County — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.
This rent runs 35% of the median local income ($45k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.
Questions for listing agent
It's been on market 58 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 15% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Built in 1970 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
CashFlowRE · CFR-J1EG6P3XTR05XQ
· Data 3 weeks agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29