3 bd · 1.0 ba ·
1,400 sqft ·
Built 1900
· SingleFamily
· Active
· 36 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$1,856/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$1,206
Tax + insurance
−$161
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$390
Net cashflow
$99/mo
Annual
$1,192/yr
Cap rate
6.81%
Cash-on-cash
1.85%
DSCR
1.08
1% rule
0.81%
Cash to close
$64,400
Investor read
This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $230k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $99 ($1k/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $186k (19.3% below list).
It's been on market 36 days — a 3% lower offer ($223k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $186k (19.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
In year one you build about $6k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $4k appreciation (1.9% local appreciation)).
Location reads 77/100 on livability (#195 in NY, #3,011 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime F, employment D-.
Buffalo City School District (urban): math 41% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #535 of 590 in NY (top 91%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 75% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
Watch-outs: built in 1900 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+8.5%/yr); 56 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 42% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 1,244 units permitted in Erie County in 2024 (563 in 5+ unit buildings).
Current owner paid $80k; list at $230k implies a 187% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
At projected returns (1.9% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $64k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
By year 6, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$32k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
This rent runs 44% of the median local income ($50k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.
Questions for listing agent
It's been on market 36 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 19% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Built in 1900 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
CashFlowRE · CFR-J1KN670FSGA9D6
· Data 2 days agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29