2 bd · 1.0 ba ·
754 sqft ·
Built 1800
· SingleFamily
· Contingent
· 53 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$1,873/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$1,259
Tax + insurance
−$275
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$393
Net cashflow
$-53/mo
Annual
$-641/yr
Cap rate
6.03%
Cash-on-cash
-0.95%
DSCR
0.96
1% rule
0.78%
Cash to close
$67,200
Investor read
This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $240k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $-53 ($-641/yr) — negative.
To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $231k (3.9% below list).
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $187k (21.9% below list).
It's been on market 53 days — a 3% lower offer ($233k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $187k (21.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
In year one you build about $20k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $18k appreciation (7.5% local appreciation)).
Location reads 76/100 on livability (#61 in MA, #3,394 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, health & safety A+, commute A-; Watch: employment C-, amenities F.
Gardner (suburban): math 16% / reading 29% proficiency, ranked #284 of 302 in MA (top 94%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
Zoned schools: Gardner Elementary School (math 18% / reading 38%, grade F, #689 of 938 statewide, top 74%, 986 students, 0% FRL); Gardner Middle School (math 16% / reading 27%, grade F, #249 of 305 statewide, top 82%, 489 students, 0% FRL); Gardner High (math 15% / reading 27%, grade F, #305 of 343 statewide, top 89%, 804 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools average 0% FRL vs 47% district-wide (47 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
Watch-outs: built in 1800 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
Market conditions: 11 active listings in the ZIP; 17 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 16d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 2,293 units permitted in Worcester County in 2024 (1,205 in 5+ unit buildings).
Current owner paid $60k; list at $240k implies a 297% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
At projected returns (7.5% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $67k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$31k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
Climate carrying-cost: moderate wind risk, 25% chance of damaging wind over 30y — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Cap rate 6.0% vs local median 3.5% in Gardner — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
Questions for listing agent
What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
It's been on market 53 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 22% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Built in 1800 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
CashFlowRE · CFR-J1R8XPAE4WYZ75
· Data 13 h agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29