85 Hamburg St

Buffalo, NY 14204

$219,900A-

6 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,984 sqft · Built 1900 · MultiFamily · Pending · 22 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $4,373/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,153
• Tax + insurance: −$422
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$918
• Net cashflow: $1,879/mo
• Annual: $22,553/yr
• Cap rate: 16.85%
• Cash-on-cash: 37.71%
• DSCR: 2.68
• 1% rule: 1.99%
• Cash to close: $61,572

Investor read

• This is a 1×2bd/1.0ba + 1×3bd/1.0ba units multifamily listed at $220k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $2k ($23k/yr) — positive. Per door: $940/mo.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($4k rent vs $220k).
• It's been on market 22 days — a 2% lower offer ($217k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $217k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#195 in NY, #3,011 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime F, employment D-.
• Buffalo City School District (urban): math 41% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #535 of 590 in NY (top 91%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 75% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $56/mo; built in 1900 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.5%/yr); 33 active listings in the ZIP; lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 1,244 units permitted in Erie County in 2024 (563 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Current owner paid $75k; list at $220k implies a 193% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 5.5% rent growth), your $62k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 16.9% vs local median 8.0% in Buffalo — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• At $4,373/mo this rent would consume 186% of the median local household income ($28k/yr) (locally 945% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• Can we see the unit-by-unit rent roll, current vacancy, and any below-market leases? What's the average tenancy length?
• What capital expenditures (roof, boiler, parking lot, exteriors) have been made in the last 5 years, and what's planned in the next 2?
• Built in 1900 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.