18939 State Line Rd

Bristol, WI 60002

$155,000D-

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,026 sqft · Built 1929 · SingleFamily · Pending · 7 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,762/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$813
• Tax + insurance: −$656
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$370
• Net cashflow: $-77/mo
• Annual: $-918/yr
• Cap rate: 5.70%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.12%
• DSCR: 0.91
• 1% rule: 1.14%
• Cash to close: $43,400

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $155k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-77 ($-918/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $142k (8.5% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $155k).
• Only 7 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $142k (8.5% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#371 in WI) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, employment A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Chsd 117 (suburban): math 36% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #135 of 620 in IL (top 22%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Watch-outs: property tax is 4.6% of price; built in 1929 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 948 units permitted in Lake County in 2024 (424 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Lake County population projected to shrink 8% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 5.7% vs local median 1.8% in Bristol — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Built in 1929 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.