18939 State Line Rd · Bristol, WI 60002

$155,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,026 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 7 Days on market

Built 1929 8.53 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +10.6/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +6.4/10.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• DSCR +3.1/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Home with barn and outbuilding. Private setting. Will be sold AS IS.

Key facts

• 8.53 acre lot
• 4 parking spots
• Built 1929

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $155k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-77 ($-918/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $142k (8.5% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $155k).
• Recommended offer: $142k (8.5% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 5.7% vs local median 1.8% in Bristol — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#371 in WI) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, employment A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Chsd 117 (suburban): math 36% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #135 of 620 in IL (top 22%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 948 units permitted in Lake County in 2024 (424 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lake County population projected to shrink 8% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• Only 7 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 4.6% of price; built in 1929 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $141,882 (8.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1929 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.14% ✓
• Cap rate: 5.70%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.12%
• DSCR: 0.91
• GRM: 7.3

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -19.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.32×
• Total profit: $-29,720
• Equity at exit: $23,111

10-year hold

• IRR: -11.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.28×
• Total profit: $-31,055
• Equity at exit: $13,402

Cash invested: $43,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 73 Landlord-Friendly
• State Wisconsin: 73 Landlord-Friendly · R+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day notice; preempted; Madison / Milwaukee have some local enforcement.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 60002

• Home prices YoY: -34.4%
• Price-to-rent: 7.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,762 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$813
• Tax from tax record: −$591 /mo · $7,094/yr
• Insurance: −$65
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$370
• Net cashflow: $-77

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,859

Max offer price $141,882

Occupancy floor 99%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $38,750
• Closing costs: $4,650
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 3 events

1. 2025-10-16
   status Pending
2. 2025-10-08
   historical Contingent - No Showings
3. 2025-10-08
   listed $155,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast WI · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $7,094 · $591/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $7,094 · $591/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥101°F today · 13 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,145
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,682
• − Property taxes: −$7,094
• − Insurance: −$775
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,692
• − Management: −$1,692
• − Depreciation: −$4,509
• Taxable loss: −$3,299
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$792
• After-tax cash flow: $-127/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Chsd 117
• NCES district ID: 1703870
• Math proficiency: 36% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $80,993
• Composite: 35.79/100
• National rank: #4836
• State rank: #135 of 620 in IL

Livability — Bristol

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #371
• US rank: #9342

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B- Crime A+ Employment A Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 5,807
• Population (ZIP): 24,396

Population outlook (Lake County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 700,217 people
• By 2030: 693,290 · -1.0%
• By 2040: 673,588 · -3.8%
• By 2050: 643,556 · -8.1%
• By 2075: 562,792 · -19.6%
• By 2100: 457,715 · -34.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (82%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 82% Hispanic / Latino 8% Two or more races 6% Black 3% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 11% Lithuanian 3% Portuguese 2%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 4% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lake

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+20.8) · D 59.7% · R 38.9% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: +1.1pp toward D · 2008: 19.6pp · 2024: 20.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+20.8 2020: D+24.1 2016: D+20.3 2012: D+8.1 2008: D+19.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -116.22%
• Current HPI: 221.5754
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.10%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in WI)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Machinery	4	$23B
▸Industrial Technology	2	$36B
▸Insurance	1	$36B
▸Professional Services	1	$19B
▸Utilities	1	$9B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$3B

Price history

3 events — show timeline

• 2025-10-16 Pending — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-10-08 Contingent — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-10-08 Listed $155,000 MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

-5.1%/yr

Latest (2024): $7,094 · -5.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.