45082 Shields Ct

Concrete, WA 98237

$829,000B-

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 4,256 sqft · Built 1999 · MultiFamily · Active · 107 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $8,700/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$4,347
• Tax + insurance: −$1,026
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,827
• Net cashflow: $1,500/mo
• Annual: $17,995/yr
• Cap rate: 8.46%
• Cash-on-cash: 7.75%
• DSCR: 1.34
• 1% rule: 1.05%
• Cash to close: $232,120

Investor read

• This is a 3 × 1-bed/?-bath units multifamily listed at $829k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $2k ($18k/yr) — positive. Per door: $500/mo.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($9k rent vs $829k).
• It's been on market 107 days — a 9% lower offer ($754k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $754k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $89k of equity ($6k loan paydown + $83k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#157 in WA, #3,709 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, health & safety A+, cost of living A; Watch: crime F, amenities F.
• Concrete School District (rural): math 24% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #255 of 291 in WA (top 88%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Concrete Elementary (301 students, 41% FRL); Concrete High School (193 students, 43% FRL) — zoned schools average 42% FRL vs 60% district-wide (17 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Market conditions: 96 active listings in the ZIP; 561 units permitted in Skagit County in 2024 (270 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Skagit County population projected at +11% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 2 sale attempts since 10y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $385k; list at $829k implies a 115% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $232k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$142k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Cap rate 8.5% vs local median 2.1% in Concrete — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 107 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Can we see the unit-by-unit rent roll, current vacancy, and any below-market leases? What's the average tenancy length?
• What capital expenditures (roof, boiler, parking lot, exteriors) have been made in the last 5 years, and what's planned in the next 2?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.