45082 Shields Ct · Concrete, WA 98237

$829,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 4,256 sqft · MultiFamily public records · 107 Days on market

Built 1999 1.20 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +23.2/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +7.4/10.0
• 1% rule +5.5/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Schools +3.2/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Multi-family units

County records classify this as Multi-Family (2-4 Unit). Listing-text estimate: 3 units. confirmed

Listing remarks

Here is the investment opportunity that you have been looking for! 4 units, including an owner’s unit with 1,700+ square feet, 2 bedrooms, 3 bath, covered deck, 35 x 35 shop with 22 x 55 lean to that is rented. RV parking, single car garage with carport. The other 3 rental units are approximately 840 sq ft each with 2 bedrooms, 1 bath, washer/dryer, carport, small deck off of kitchen, close to town and walkable to post office, library and stores. Shop has bathroom.

Key facts

• Covered deck
• 35 x 35 shop
• Rv parking

Tags

• COVERED DECK
• RV PARKING
• 35 X 35 SHOP
• 22 X 55 LEAN TO
• SHOP HAS BATHROOM

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3 × 1-bed/?-bath units multifamily listed at $829k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $2k ($18k/yr) — positive. Per door: $500/mo.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($9k rent vs $829k).
• Recommended offer: $754k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.5% vs local median 2.1% in Concrete — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#157 in WA, #3,709 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, health & safety A+, cost of living A; Watch: crime F, amenities F.
• Concrete School District (rural): math 24% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #255 of 291 in WA (top 88%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Concrete Elementary (301 students, 41% FRL); Concrete High School (193 students, 43% FRL) — zoned schools average 42% FRL vs 60% district-wide (17 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Market conditions: 96 active listings in the ZIP; 561 units permitted in Skagit County in 2024 (270 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $89k of equity ($6k loan paydown + $83k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Skagit County population projected at +11% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $232k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$142k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 107 days — a 9% lower offer ($754k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 10y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $385k; list at $829k implies a 115% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $754,390 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 107 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Can we see the unit-by-unit rent roll, current vacancy, and any below-market leases? What's the average tenancy length?
3. What capital expenditures (roof, boiler, parking lot, exteriors) have been made in the last 5 years, and what's planned in the next 2?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.05% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.46%
• Cash-on-cash: 7.75%
• DSCR: 1.34
• GRM: 7.9

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 29.9%
• Equity multiple: 3.36×
• Total profit: $546,919
• Equity at exit: $746,829

10-year hold

• IRR: 25.9%
• Equity multiple: 7.61×
• Total profit: $1,535,304
• Equity at exit: $1,610,565

Cash invested: $232,120 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 28 Tenant-Leaning
• State Washington: 28 Tenant-Leaning · D+8
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Just-cause statewide (2021); Seattle layers rent control restrictions + relocation assistance; very tenant-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 98237

• Home prices YoY: 18.6%
• Active inventory: 96
• Price-to-rent: 23.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $8,700 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$4,347
• Tax from tax record: −$681 /mo · $8,167/yr
• Insurance: −$345
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,827
• Net cashflow: $1,500

Break-even live

Break-even rent $6,802

Max offer price $829,000

Occupancy floor 78%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,969	-5% $1,734	+0% $1,500	+5% $1,265	+10% $1,030
Rent	-10% $812	-5% $1,156	+0% $1,500	+5% $1,843	+10% $2,187
Rate	-1.0pp $1,917	-0.5pp $1,710	base $1,500	+0.5pp $1,285	+1.0pp $1,066

3-unit breakdown (identical units grouped — click to expand)

Units	Beds	Baths	Est. rent
▸ 3× units	1	—	$8,700
Total (3 units)			$8,700

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $207,250
• Closing costs: $24,870
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $829,000 Active 107 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   days on market $829,000 Active 105 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $829,000 Active 104 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $829,000 Active 103 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $829,000 Active 102 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $829,000 Active 101 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $829,000 Active 99 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   days on market $829,000 Active 98 DOM
9. 2026-06-10
   days on market $829,000 Active 96 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    days on market $829,000 Active 95 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $829,000 Active 94 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $829,000 Active 93 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $829,000 Active 88 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $829,000 Active 87 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $829,000 Active 86 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $829,000 Active 85 DOM
17. 2026-05-19
    price $829,000
18. 2026-03-06
    listed $850,000 Active
19. 2016-06-02
    soldstatus $385,000
20. 2016-06-02
    listed $385,000
21. 2016-06-02
    soldstatus $385,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast WA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $8,167 · $681/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $8,167 · $681/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 9 d/yr ≥87°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 7/10 Severe 11 unhealthy d/yr today · 11 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $104,400
• − Mortgage interest: −$46,437
• − Property taxes: −$8,167
• − Insurance: −$4,145
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$8,352
• − Management: −$8,352
• − Depreciation: −$24,116
• Taxable income: $4,830
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,159
• After-tax cash flow: $16,836/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Concrete School District
• NCES district ID: 5301660
• Math proficiency: 24% ▼ -1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▲ 7.00%
• Median HH income: $43,849
• Composite: 31.96/100
• National rank: #11033
• State rank: #255 of 291 in WA

Livability — Concrete

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #157
• US rank: #3709

Category grades

Amenities F Commute C+ Cost of living A Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Concrete, WA
• Population (ZIP): 5,110

Population outlook (Skagit County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 131,498 people
• By 2030: 135,556 · +3.1%
• By 2040: 141,717 · +7.8%
• By 2050: 145,714 · +10.8%
• By 2075: 152,201 · +15.7%
• By 2100: 147,980 · +12.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (79%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 79% Hispanic / Latino 12% Two or more races 8% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 5% Iranian 4% Slovak 3%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 4% French/Haitian/Cajun 1% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Skagit

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+8.9) · D 52.9% · R 44.0% · Other 3.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -0.7pp no change · 2008: 9.6pp · 2024: 8.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+8.9 2020: D+7.5 2016: D+3.2 2012: D+5.8 2008: D+9.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 83.52%
• Current HPI: 533.5113
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.65%
• F500 in state: 22

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in WA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Retail	2	$269B
▸Technology / Retail	1	$638B
▸Technology	1	$245B
▸Telecommunications	1	$38B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$36B
▸Automotive / Trucks	1	$34B

Price history

+115.3% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-19 Price Changed $829,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-06 Listed $850,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2016-06-02 Sold (Public Records) $385,000 Public Records
• 2016-06-02 Listed $385,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2016-06-02 Sold (MLS) $385,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+12.8%/yr

Latest (2026): $8,167 · +46.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.