1220 Smith Rd

Harris Hill, NY 14051

$280,000C-

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,473 sqft · Built 1952 · SingleFamily · Pending · 6 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,549/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,468
• Tax + insurance: −$598
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$535
• Net cashflow: $-53/mo
• Annual: $-630/yr
• Cap rate: 6.07%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.80%
• DSCR: 0.96
• 1% rule: 0.91%
• Cash to close: $78,400

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $280k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-53 ($-630/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $271k (3.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $255k (9.0% below list).
• Only 6 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $255k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#345 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, health & safety A-; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Williamsville Central School District (suburban): math 64% / reading 77% proficiency, ranked #114 of 590 in NY (top 19%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical; only 10% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Watch-outs: built in 1952 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.6%/yr); 153 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 4d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 1,244 units permitted in Erie County in 2024 (563 in 5+ unit buildings).
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $85k; list at $280k implies a 229% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Cap rate 6.1% vs local median 2.7% in Harris Hill — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Built in 1952 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.