1427 Yorktown Dr

Lawrence, PA 15055

$279,900D-

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,382 sqft · Built 1999 · Townhouse · Pending · 25 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,094/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,468
• Tax + insurance: −$344
• HOA: −$153
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$440
• Net cashflow: $-311/mo
• Annual: $-3,736/yr
• Cap rate: 4.96%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.77%
• DSCR: 0.79
• 1% rule: 0.75%
• Cash to close: $78,372

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath townhouse listed at $280k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-311 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $225k (19.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $209k (25.2% below list).
• It's been on market 25 days — a 2% lower offer ($276k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $209k (25.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $14k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $12k appreciation (4.1% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#1,164 in PA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime B+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Canon-Mcmillan SD (suburban): math 49% / reading 72% proficiency, ranked #66 of 539 in PA (top 12%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 19% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Hills-Hendersonville El Sch (math 57% / reading 77%, grade B+, #202 of 1,518 statewide, top 15%, 258 students, 24% FRL); Canonsburg Ms (math 37% / reading 71%, grade B-, #82 of 512 statewide, top 16%, 777 students, 26% FRL); Canon-Mcmillan Shs (math 83%, 1,655 students, 26% FRL).
• Market conditions: 6 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 0d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 489 units permitted in Washington County in 2024 (30 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Washington County population projected to shrink 6% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• 2 sale attempts since 4y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$33k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.