15 Old River Rd

Thornhurst, PA 18424

$375,000F

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,616 sqft · Built 1990 · SingleFamily · Active · 25 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,675/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,967
• Tax + insurance: −$625
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$562
• Net cashflow: $-478/mo
• Annual: $-5,739/yr
• Cap rate: 4.76%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.47%
• DSCR: 0.76
• 1% rule: 0.71%
• Cash to close: $105,000

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $375k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-478 ($-6k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $306k (18.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $268k (28.7% below list).
• It's been on market 25 days — a 2% lower offer ($369k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $268k (28.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $34k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $32k appreciation (8.4% local appreciation)).
• Location reads: area grade F — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• North Pocono SD (rural): math 45% / reading 71% proficiency, ranked #82 of 539 in PA (top 15%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Moscow El Sch (math 62% / reading 82%, grade A-, #123 of 1,518 statewide, top 9%, 591 students, 43% FRL); North Pocono Ms (math 25% / reading 69%, grade D+, #163 of 512 statewide, top 33%, 665 students, 36% FRL); North Pocono Hs (math 72%, 905 students, 33% FRL).
• Market conditions: 301 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 251 units permitted in Lackawanna County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Lackawanna County population projected to shrink 4% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• Current owner paid $235k; list at $375k implies a 60% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$55k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.