15 Old River Rd · Thornhurst, PA 18424

$375,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,616 sqft · SingleFamily · 25 Days on market

Built 1990 7,405 sqft lot Est $333k · 13% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +9.2/10.0
• Cash flow +7.4/30.0
• Schools +5.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.1/10.0
• ARV discount +1.8/15.0
• DSCR +1.6/10.0

Listing remarks

Tucked away in the heart of nature, this fully renovated 3 bedroom, 2 bath retreat offers the perfect blend of modern comfort and outdoor adventure. Surrounded on two sides by State Game Lands with only one neighboring home, you'll enjoy unmatched privacy and breathtaking scenery in every direction. Relax in the hot tub after a day exploring nearby hiking trails, Choke Creek Falls, and the Lehigh

Key facts

• Fully renovated
• Hot tub
• Hiking trails

Tags

• FULLY RENOVATED
• HOT TUB
• HIKING TRAILS

Property features AI

Exterior

• Utilities: Private well water; Cable available
• Home design: Single family residence; Residential property; Three or more levels
• Construction: Stone and vinyl siding exterior
• Exterior features: Balcony; Deck; Patio; Porch; Shed(s); Cleared lot

Interior

• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Heat pump; Electric heating; Propane; Baseboard heating; Ceiling fan(s)
• Interior features: Central vacuum; Skylight(s); Two fireplaces (one in the dining room)
• Laundry & utility: Electric water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $375k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-478 ($-6k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $306k (18.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $268k (28.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $268k (28.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade F — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• North Pocono SD (rural): math 45% / reading 71% proficiency, ranked #82 of 539 in PA (top 15%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Moscow El Sch (math 62% / reading 82%, grade A-, #123 of 1,518 statewide, top 9%, 591 students, 43% FRL); North Pocono Ms (math 25% / reading 69%, grade D+, #163 of 512 statewide, top 33%, 665 students, 36% FRL); North Pocono Hs (math 72%, 905 students, 33% FRL).
• Market conditions: 301 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 251 units permitted in Lackawanna County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $34k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $32k appreciation (8.4% local appreciation)).
• Lackawanna County population projected to shrink 4% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$55k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 25 days — a 2% lower offer ($369k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $235k; list at $375k implies a 60% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $267,500 (28.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.71% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.76%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.47%
• DSCR: 0.76
• GRM: 11.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $332,896
• Comps found: 2

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
299 Old River Rd Unit THORNHURST, PA	0.27mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,705 (+6%)	20mo	$351,000	$206	56
1225 E Riverside Hts E	0.72mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,808 (+12%)	3mo	$305,000	$169	37

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

8.45% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 16.9%
• Equity multiple: 2.29×
• Total profit: $135,044
• Equity at exit: $296,586

10-year hold

• IRR: 16.2%
• Equity multiple: 4.95×
• Total profit: $415,274
• Equity at exit: $600,232

Cash invested: $105,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Pennsylvania: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; Philadelphia has eviction-court diversion + some protections; otherwise moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 18424

• Home prices YoY: 2.2%
• Active inventory: 301
• Price-to-rent: 11.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,675 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,967
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$469 /mo · $5,625/yr
• Insurance: −$156
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$562
• Net cashflow: $-478

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,280

Max offer price $305,791

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-219	-5% $-349	+0% $-478	+5% $-608	+10% $-737
Rent	-10% $-690	-5% $-584	+0% $-478	+5% $-373	+10% $-267
Rate	-1.0pp $-289	-0.5pp $-383	base $-478	+0.5pp $-575	+1.0pp $-674

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $93,750
• Closing costs: $11,250
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
107 Oswayo Dr Pocono Lake, PA	4.0	2.0	1680	$2,675	$1.59	15d	1	1.34mi

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $375,000 Active 25 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $375,000 Active 22 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $375,000 Active 21 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $375,000 Active 20 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $375,000 Active 19 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $375,000 Active 17 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $375,000 Active 16 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $375,000 Active 14 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $375,000 Active 13 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $375,000 Active 12 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $375,000 Active 11 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $375,000 Active 6 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $375,000 Active 5 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $375,000 Active 4 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $375,000 Active 3 DOM
16. 2026-05-27
    listed $375,000 Active
17. 2023-07-18
    soldstatus $235,000
18. 2005-03-04
    soldstatus $133,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥90°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 3/10 Moderate 4% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $32,100
• − Mortgage interest: −$21,006
• − Property taxes: −$5,625
• − Insurance: −$1,875
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,568
• − Management: −$2,568
• − Depreciation: −$10,909
• Taxable loss: −$12,451
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,988
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,751/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: North Pocono SD
• NCES district ID: 4217310
• Math proficiency: 45% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 71% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $59,555
• Composite: 50.23/100
• National rank: #1894
• State rank: #82 of 539 in PA

Livability — Thornhurst

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 5,076

Population outlook (Lackawanna County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 210,652 people
• By 2030: 208,623 · -1.0%
• By 2040: 203,980 · -3.2%
• By 2050: 201,069 · -4.5%
• By 2075: 205,026 · -2.7%
• By 2100: 210,851 · +0.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (89%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 89% Two or more races 6% Hispanic / Latino 5% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 2% Dominican 1% Salvadoran 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 11% Iranian 6% Scotch-Irish 3%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada, Dominican Republic
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 2% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lackawanna

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 51.0% · R 48.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -23.2pp toward R · 2008: 26.0pp · 2024: 2.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+2.8 2020: D+8.4 2016: D+3.4 2012: D+27.4 2008: D+26.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 8.45%
• Current HPI: 399.903
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.68%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in PA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$309B
▸Insurance	2	$27B
▸Telecommunications / Media	1	$124B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$22B
▸Financial Services	1	$20B
▸Chemicals / Materials	1	$18B

Price history

+180.1% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-27 Listed $375,000 LCAR
• 2023-07-18 Sold (Public Records) $235,000 Public Records
• 2005-03-04 Sold (Public Records) $133,900 Public Records

Property tax history

+31.7%/yr

Latest (2026): $59,155 · +1511.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.