668 Fairview Rd

Clayton, NJ 08028

$165,000B+

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,144 sqft · Built 1930 · SingleFamily · Active · 97 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,570/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$865
• Tax + insurance: −$426
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$540
• Net cashflow: $739/mo
• Annual: $8,872/yr
• Cap rate: 11.67%
• Cash-on-cash: 19.20%
• DSCR: 1.85
• 1% rule: 1.56%
• Cash to close: $46,200

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $165k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $739 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $165k).
• It's been on market 97 days — a 9% lower offer ($150k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $150k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#266 in NJ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: cost of living C-, schools F, amenities F.
• Elk Township School District (rural): math 45% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #419 of 612 in NJ (top 68%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.6% of price; built in 1930 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.6%/yr); 75 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 1,047 units permitted in Gloucester County in 2024 (183 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Gloucester County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 4.6% rent growth), your $46k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 66% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 11.7% vs local median 2.9% in Clayton — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 35% of the median local income ($89k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 97 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1930 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.