15627 State Route 854

Cannonsburg, KY 41168

$44,900B

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,258 sqft · Built 1953 · SingleFamily · Pending · 85 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,169/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$235
• Tax + insurance: −$511
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$246
• Net cashflow: $177/mo
• Annual: $2,124/yr
• Cap rate: 22.42%
• Cash-on-cash: 57.61%
• DSCR: 3.56
• 1% rule: 2.60%
• Cash to close: $12,572

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $45k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $177 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $45k).
• It's been on market 85 days — a 6% lower offer ($42k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $42k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $237 of equity ($310 loan paydown + $-73 appreciation (-0.2% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#168 in KY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Boyd County (suburban): math 20% / reading 37% proficiency, ranked #115 of 165 in KY (top 70%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Ponderosa Elementary School (math 27% / reading 42%, grade F, #301 of 676 statewide, top 48%, 324 students, 54% FRL); Boyd County Middle School (math 18% / reading 39%, grade F, #161 of 217 statewide, top 75%, 620 students, 55% FRL); Boyd County High School (math 27% / reading 37%, grade F, #97 of 254 statewide, top 46%, 911 students, 52% FRL).
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo; built in 1953 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 12 active listings in the ZIP; 2 units permitted in Boyd County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Boyd County population projected at -17% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 3 sale attempts since 8y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $10k (18%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• At projected returns (-0.2% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $13k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); major wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 22.4% vs local median 4.3% in Cannonsburg — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 85 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1953 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.