15627 State Route 854 · Cannonsburg, KY 41168

$44,900

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,258 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 85 Days on market

Built 1953 ↓ 4% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +4.9/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Vinyl sided 1.5 story with covered front porch, rear deck on approximately 1 acre level lot. Good access to main highway and Interstate. Within 15 minutes of all amenities. Spacious eat in kitchen plus dining room. Living room with gas fireplace. Ready for immediate occupancy. Under FinCEN's new RRE Rule, transfers will be subject to reporting when buyers use entities or trusts to take title to residential real estate, when the transaction is all cash, privately financed or HELOC. Purchasers may use any lender they choose to finance the purchase of a property. However, the seller requires that all non-cash offers must be pre-qualified by New Rez Home Loan Division prior to offer acceptance. For the free pre-qualification, contact Shelly Scheuer at [phone] orshelly. [email protected]. "

Key facts

• Covered front porch
• Level lot
• Rear deck

Tags

• COVERED FRONT PORCH
• REAR DECK
• LEVEL LOT
• GOOD ACCESS TO MAIN HIGHWAY
• WITHIN 15 MINUTES OF AMENITIES
• SPACIOUS EAT IN KITCHEN

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: No designated parking
• Home design: Single-family residence; Single story
• Construction: Above-grade finished area approximately 1,616
• Exterior features: Lot approximately 1.0 acre; Directions: US 60 W to left on RT 854; stay left at fork; home on the right across from the church

Interior

• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom; 1 half bathroom
• Interior features: 6 total rooms

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $45k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $177 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $45k).
• Recommended offer: $42k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 22.4% vs local median 4.3% in Cannonsburg — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#168 in KY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Boyd County (suburban): math 20% / reading 37% proficiency, ranked #115 of 165 in KY (top 70%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Ponderosa Elementary School (math 27% / reading 42%, grade F, #301 of 676 statewide, top 48%, 324 students, 54% FRL); Boyd County Middle School (math 18% / reading 39%, grade F, #161 of 217 statewide, top 75%, 620 students, 55% FRL); Boyd County High School (math 27% / reading 37%, grade F, #97 of 254 statewide, top 46%, 911 students, 52% FRL).
• Market conditions: 12 active listings in the ZIP; 2 units permitted in Boyd County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $237 of equity ($310 loan paydown + $-73 appreciation (-0.2% local appreciation)).
• Boyd County population projected at -17% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-0.2% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $13k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 85 days — a 6% lower offer ($42k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 8y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $10k (18%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo; built in 1953 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); major wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $42,206 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 85 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1953 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.60% ✓
• Cap rate: 22.42%
• Cash-on-cash: 57.61%
• DSCR: 3.56
• GRM: 3.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $133,348
• Comps found: 3

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
15822 KY 854 Rd	0.18mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,125 (-11%)	2mo	$119,000	$106	68
15824 KY 854 Rd	0.18mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,120 (-11%)	6mo	$160,000	$143	63
1229 Black Leg Road Holw	0.60mi	3/2.0	1,200 (-5%)	1mo	$29,000	$24	59

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-0.16% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 16.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.79×
• Total profit: $9,905
• Equity at exit: $12,673

10-year hold

• IRR: 21.4%
• Equity multiple: 3.37×
• Total profit: $29,811
• Equity at exit: $14,945

Cash invested: $12,572 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Kentucky: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+16
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit (URLTA cities); generally landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 41168

• Home prices YoY: -0.1%
• Active inventory: 12
• Price-to-rent: 3.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,169 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$235
• Tax from tax record: −$66 /mo · $793/yr
• Insurance: −$19
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$427 /mo · $5,118/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$246
• Net cashflow: $177

Break-even live

Break-even rent $945

Max offer price $44,900

Occupancy floor 80%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $202	-5% $190	+0% $177	+5% $164	+10% $152
Rent	-10% $85	-5% $131	+0% $177	+5% $223	+10% $269
Rate	-1.0pp $200	-0.5pp $188	base $177	+0.5pp $165	+1.0pp $154

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $11,225
• Closing costs: $1,347
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 9 events

1. 2026-05-11
   status Pending

   Show marketing remark (809 chars)

   Vinyl sided 1.5 story with covered front porch, rear deck on approximately 1 acre level lot. Good access to main highway and Interstate. Within 15 minutes of all amenities. Spacious eat in kitchen plus dining room. Living room with gas fireplace. Ready for immediate occupancy. Under FinCEN's new RRE Rule, transfers will be subject to reporting when buyers use entities or trusts to take title to residential real estate, when the transaction is all cash, privately financed or HELOC. Purchasers may use any lender they choose to finance the purchase of a property. However, the seller requires that all non-cash offers must be pre-qualified by New Rez Home Loan Division prior to offer acceptance. For the free pre-qualification, contact Shelly Scheuer at [phone] orshelly. [email protected]. "

2. 2026-05-11
   status Pending 809-char remark

   Show marketing remark (809 chars)

   Vinyl sided 1.5 story with covered front porch, rear deck on approximately 1 acre level lot. Good access to main highway and Interstate. Within 15 minutes of all amenities. Spacious eat in kitchen plus dining room. Living room with gas fireplace. Ready for immediate occupancy. Under FinCEN's new RRE Rule, transfers will be subject to reporting when buyers use entities or trusts to take title to residential real estate, when the transaction is all cash, privately financed or HELOC. Purchasers may use any lender they choose to finance the purchase of a property. However, the seller requires that all non-cash offers must be pre-qualified by New Rez Home Loan Division prior to offer acceptance. For the free pre-qualification, contact Shelly Scheuer at [phone] orshelly. [email protected]. "

3. 2026-03-28
   price $44,900

   Show marketing remark (809 chars)

   Vinyl sided 1.5 story with covered front porch, rear deck on approximately 1 acre level lot. Good access to main highway and Interstate. Within 15 minutes of all amenities. Spacious eat in kitchen plus dining room. Living room with gas fireplace. Ready for immediate occupancy. Under FinCEN's new RRE Rule, transfers will be subject to reporting when buyers use entities or trusts to take title to residential real estate, when the transaction is all cash, privately financed or HELOC. Purchasers may use any lender they choose to finance the purchase of a property. However, the seller requires that all non-cash offers must be pre-qualified by New Rez Home Loan Division prior to offer acceptance. For the free pre-qualification, contact Shelly Scheuer at [phone] orshelly. [email protected]. "

4. 2026-03-28
   price $44,900 809-char remark

   Show marketing remark (809 chars)

   Vinyl sided 1.5 story with covered front porch, rear deck on approximately 1 acre level lot. Good access to main highway and Interstate. Within 15 minutes of all amenities. Spacious eat in kitchen plus dining room. Living room with gas fireplace. Ready for immediate occupancy. Under FinCEN's new RRE Rule, transfers will be subject to reporting when buyers use entities or trusts to take title to residential real estate, when the transaction is all cash, privately financed or HELOC. Purchasers may use any lender they choose to finance the purchase of a property. However, the seller requires that all non-cash offers must be pre-qualified by New Rez Home Loan Division prior to offer acceptance. For the free pre-qualification, contact Shelly Scheuer at [phone] orshelly. [email protected]. "

5. 2026-02-16
   listed $54,900 Active 809-char remark

   Show marketing remark (809 chars)

   Vinyl sided 1.5 story with covered front porch, rear deck on approximately 1 acre level lot. Good access to main highway and Interstate. Within 15 minutes of all amenities. Spacious eat in kitchen plus dining room. Living room with gas fireplace. Ready for immediate occupancy. Under FinCEN's new RRE Rule, transfers will be subject to reporting when buyers use entities or trusts to take title to residential real estate, when the transaction is all cash, privately financed or HELOC. Purchasers may use any lender they choose to finance the purchase of a property. However, the seller requires that all non-cash offers must be pre-qualified by New Rez Home Loan Division prior to offer acceptance. For the free pre-qualification, contact Shelly Scheuer at [phone] orshelly. [email protected]. "

6. 2026-02-16
   listed $54,900 Active

   Show marketing remark (809 chars)

   Vinyl sided 1.5 story with covered front porch, rear deck on approximately 1 acre level lot. Good access to main highway and Interstate. Within 15 minutes of all amenities. Spacious eat in kitchen plus dining room. Living room with gas fireplace. Ready for immediate occupancy. Under FinCEN's new RRE Rule, transfers will be subject to reporting when buyers use entities or trusts to take title to residential real estate, when the transaction is all cash, privately financed or HELOC. Purchasers may use any lender they choose to finance the purchase of a property. However, the seller requires that all non-cash offers must be pre-qualified by New Rez Home Loan Division prior to offer acceptance. For the free pre-qualification, contact Shelly Scheuer at [phone] orshelly. [email protected]. "

7. 2018-11-27
   soldstatus $53,900 368-char remark

   Show marketing remark (368 chars)

   This charming 1.5 story cottage style home would make a great starter home. It contains three bedrooms, one full bathroom and one half bathroom with large kitchen/eating combo, separate dining room and a formal living room with fireplace. Home offers a separate TV room with walkout access to the deck. This home is priced to sell! Call today for your private showing!

8. 2018-05-08
   listed $54,900 368-char remark

   Show marketing remark (368 chars)

   This charming 1.5 story cottage style home would make a great starter home. It contains three bedrooms, one full bathroom and one half bathroom with large kitchen/eating combo, separate dining room and a formal living room with fireplace. Home offers a separate TV room with walkout access to the deck. This home is priced to sell! Call today for your private showing!

9. 1997-04-28
   soldstatus $47,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast KY · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $793 · $66/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $793 · $66/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 9/10 Extreme FEMA zone AE · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥101°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,033
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,515
• − Property taxes: −$793
• − Insurance: −$5,343
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,123
• − Management: −$1,123
• − Depreciation: −$1,306
• Taxable income: $1,830
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$439
• After-tax cash flow: $1,685/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Boyd County
• NCES district ID: 2100620
• Math proficiency: 20% ▼ -18.00%
• Reading proficiency: 37% ▼ -17.00%
• Median HH income: $47,479
• Composite: 24.65/100
• National rank: #7625
• State rank: #115 of 165 in KY

Livability — Cannonsburg

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #168
• US rank: #8480

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment B+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Boyd · 3,640 people
• Metro: Huntington-Ashland, WV-KY-OH
• Population (ZIP): 3,640
• Household income: $73,894
• Rent vs Own: 9.0% rent · 91.0% own

Population outlook (Boyd County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 46,137 people
• By 2030: 44,585 · -3.4%
• By 2040: 41,442 · -10.2%
• By 2050: 38,313 · -17.0%
• By 2075: 31,077 · -32.6%
• By 2100: 23,432 · -49.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (94%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 94% Two or more races 3% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 4% Lithuanian 3% Iranian 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Boyd

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+38.5) · D 30.0% · R 68.6% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -26.2pp toward R · 2008: -12.3pp · 2024: -38.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+38.5 2020: R+33.2 2016: R+37.0 2012: R+16.3 2008: R+12.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -0.16%
• Current HPI: 245.0173
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.81%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in KY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$118B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$7B

Price history

-4.5% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-11 Pending — AABOR
• 2026-05-11 Pending — HBRMLS
• 2026-03-28 Price Changed $44,900 AABOR
• 2026-03-28 Price Changed $44,900 HBRMLS
• 2026-02-16 Listed $54,900 HBRMLS
• 2026-02-16 Listed $54,900 AABOR
• 2018-11-27 Sold (MLS) $53,900 AABOR
• 2018-05-08 Listed $54,900 AABOR
• 1997-04-28 Sold (Public Records) $47,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+13.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $793 · -0.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.