250 Shepherd Ln

Arlington, VT 05250

$350,000D-

2 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,482 sqft · Built 1988 · SingleFamily · Active · 55 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,338/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,835
• Tax + insurance: −$431
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$281
• Net cashflow: $-1,209/mo
• Annual: $-14,512/yr
• Cap rate: 2.15%
• Cash-on-cash: -14.81%
• DSCR: 0.34
• 1% rule: 0.38%
• Cash to close: $98,000

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $350k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-1k ($-15k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $136k (61.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $134k (61.8% below list).
• It's been on market 55 days — a 3% lower offer ($340k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $134k (61.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $37k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $35k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 58/100 on livability (#104 in VT) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: crime A+, housing B+, cost of living B; Watch: schools C-, employment C-, health & safety D.
• Market conditions: 17 active listings in the ZIP; 59 units permitted in Bennington County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Bennington County population projected at -23% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 2 sale attempts since 14y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $50k (12%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $230k; list at $350k implies a 52% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$60k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 55 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 62% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.