250 Shepherd Ln · Arlington, VT 05250

$350,000

2 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,482 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 55 Days on market

Built 1988 14 ac lot $236/sqft · 15% below area Est $403k · 13% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +13.4/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Schools +5.0/10.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Cash flow +2.5/30.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +0.0/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Never before offered for sale this cape style home is on 14 tranquil acres of woods and trails and seclusion. Enjoy the bluestone patio and enclosed porch or quiet stting area in woods with mountain views. Hike, hunt or snowshoe right on your own proeprty. New driveway with grading done summer of 2012. New electric panel and new flooring added recenlty. Tiled floor in kitchen and dining area, hardwoods in living room and laminate in bedrooms. Well insulated and newer metal roof. Next year is ready for logging and potential income from that.

Key facts

• 14 acre lot
• Built 1988
• Listed 55 days

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway with crushed stone, dirt and gravel surfaces
• Utilities: Drilled well; Septic system; 100 amp electrical service; Cable internet available; Cable service and LP/bottled gas available
• Home design: Cape-style home; Existing construction
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Metal roof; Built in 1988
• Exterior features: Country setting; Hilly terrain; Wooded lot; Adjoins state/national forest; Rural location; Privately maintained road frontage; Crushed stone/dirt/gravel driveway

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Electric stove; Microwave; Refrigerator
• Flooring: Carpet; Hardwood; Laminate; Slate/stone; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: One full bath; One half bath
• Heating & cooling: Oil heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Five total rooms; Concrete basement with interior stair access and storage space
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $350k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-1k ($-15k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $136k (61.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $134k (61.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $134k (61.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 58/100 on livability (#104 in VT) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: crime A+, housing B+, cost of living B; Watch: schools C-, employment C-, health & safety D.
• Market conditions: 17 active listings in the ZIP; 59 units permitted in Bennington County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $37k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $35k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Bennington County population projected at -23% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$60k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 55 days — a 3% lower offer ($340k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 14y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $50k (12%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $230k; list at $350k implies a 52% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $133,791 (61.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 55 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 62% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.38% ✗
• Cap rate: 2.15%
• Cash-on-cash: -14.81%
• DSCR: 0.34
• GRM: 21.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $402,672
• List price: $350,000
• Delta: -13.08%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 8 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
447 Farm Rd	0.27mi	2/2.0	1,564 (+6%)	8mo	$405,000	$259	69
1799 Old West Rd	0.44mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,560 (+5%)	17mo	$420,000	$269	49
156 Gingerbread Hill Rd	0.63mi	2/2.0	1,512 (+2%)	23mo	$440,000	$291	46

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 14.0%
• Equity multiple: 2.16×
• Total profit: $113,522
• Equity at exit: $315,308

10-year hold

• IRR: 14.0%
• Equity multiple: 5.03×
• Total profit: $394,729
• Equity at exit: $679,973

Cash invested: $98,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 41 Moderately Tenant-Leaning
• State Vermont: 41 Moderately Tenant-Leaning · D+15
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Just-cause in Burlington (2022); strong habitability.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 05250

• Home prices YoY: 11.7%
• Active inventory: 17
• Price-to-rent: 21.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,338 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,835
• Tax from tax record: −$285 /mo · $3,420/yr
• Insurance: −$146
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$281
• Net cashflow: $-1,209

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,869

Max offer price $136,365

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $87,500
• Closing costs: $10,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $350,000 Active 55 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $350,000 Active 54 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $350,000 Active 53 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $350,000 Active 52 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $350,000 Active 51 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $350,000 Active 50 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $350,000 Active 49 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $350,000 Active 46 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   pricedays on market $350,000 Active 45 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $389,900 Active 44 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $389,900 Active 43 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $389,900 Active 40 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $389,900 Active 39 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $389,900 Active 38 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $389,900 Active 37 DOM
16. 2026-05-18
    price $389,900 943-char remark
17. 2026-04-24
    listed $399,900 Active 943-char remark
18. 2013-05-31
    soldstatus $230,000
19. 2013-05-23
    soldstatus $230,000 546-char remark

    Show marketing remark (546 chars)

    Never before offered for sale this cape style home is on 14 tranquil acres of woods and trails and seclusion. Enjoy the bluestone patio and enclosed porch or quiet stting area in woods with mountain views. Hike, hunt or snowshoe right on your own proeprty. New driveway with grading done summer of 2012. New electric panel and new flooring added recenlty. Tiled floor in kitchen and dining area, hardwoods in living room and laminate in bedrooms. Well insulated and newer metal roof. Next year is ready for logging and potential income from that.

20. 2012-08-22
    listed $235,000 546-char remark

    Show marketing remark (546 chars)

    Never before offered for sale this cape style home is on 14 tranquil acres of woods and trails and seclusion. Enjoy the bluestone patio and enclosed porch or quiet stting area in woods with mountain views. Hike, hunt or snowshoe right on your own proeprty. New driveway with grading done summer of 2012. New electric panel and new flooring added recenlty. Tiled floor in kitchen and dining area, hardwoods in living room and laminate in bedrooms. Well insulated and newer metal roof. Next year is ready for logging and potential income from that.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast VT · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $3,420 · $285/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,035 · $420/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,615/yr (+$135/mo · 47.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 1/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥90°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 3/10 Moderate 5% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,055
• − Mortgage interest: −$19,605
• − Property taxes: −$3,420
• − Insurance: −$1,750
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,284
• − Management: −$1,284
• − Depreciation: −$10,182
• Taxable loss: −$21,471
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$5,153
• After-tax cash flow: $-9,359/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

No district data.

Livability — Arlington

• Score: 58/100
• State rank: #104
• US rank: #21059

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B Crime A+ Employment C- Housing B+ Health & safety D User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 3,907

Population outlook (Bennington County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 34,407 people
• By 2030: 32,975 · -4.2%
• By 2040: 29,711 · -13.6%
• By 2050: 26,638 · -22.6%
• By 2075: 21,318 · -38.0%
• By 2100: 16,086 · -53.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (85%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 85% Two or more races 6% Hispanic / Latino 5% Black 4% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Lithuanian 4% Iranian 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 2% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Bennington

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+22.5) · D 60.0% · R 37.5% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -10.9pp toward R · 2008: 33.4pp · 2024: 22.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+22.5 2020: D+27.3 2016: D+22.1 2012: D+33.3 2008: D+33.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 32.92%
• Current HPI: 315.5985
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

+48.9% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-08 Price Changed $350,000 PrimeMLS
• 2026-05-18 Price Changed $389,900 PrimeMLS
• 2026-04-24 Listed $399,900 PrimeMLS
• 2013-05-31 Sold (Public Records) $230,000 Public Records
• 2013-05-23 Sold (MLS) $230,000 PrimeMLS
• 2012-08-22 Listed $235,000 PrimeMLS

Property tax history

-1.7%/yr

Latest (2024): $3,420 · -1.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.