3 bd · 2.0 ba ·
1,280 sqft ·
Built 2000
· Other
· Active
· 12 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$1,443/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$209
Tax + insurance
−$36
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$303
Net cashflow
$894/mo
Annual
$10,727/yr
Cap rate
33.18%
Cash-on-cash
96.02%
DSCR
5.27
1% rule
3.62%
Cash to close
$11,172
Investor read
This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath other listed at $40k. Condition is rated fair.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $894 ($11k/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $40k).
Only 12 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
In year one you build about $627 of equity ($276 loan paydown + $351 appreciation (0.9% local appreciation)).
Location reads 57/100 on livability (#445 in KY) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime C-, schools F, amenities F.
Christian County (town): math 30% / reading 34% proficiency, ranked #93 of 165 in KY (top 56%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 61% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
Market conditions: Rents flat; 83 active listings in the ZIP; 21 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 193 units permitted in Christian County in 2024 (66 in 5+ unit buildings).
Christian County population projected at -20% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
At projected returns (0.9% appreciation + 0.0% rent growth), your $11k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.
Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Cap rate 33.2% vs local median 3.5% in Oak Grove — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($52k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.
Questions for listing agent
Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.