2707 County Road 2

Smithville Flats, NY 13801

$104,000C

1 bd · 1.5 ba · 141,570 sqft · Built 1991 · SingleFamily · Pending · 35 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $972/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$545
• Tax + insurance: −$169
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$204
• Net cashflow: $54/mo
• Annual: $643/yr
• Cap rate: 6.91%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.21%
• DSCR: 1.10
• 1% rule: 0.93%
• Cash to close: $29,120

Investor read

• This is a 1-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $104k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $54 ($643/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $97k (6.6% below list).
• It's been on market 35 days — a 3% lower offer ($101k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $97k (6.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $11k of equity ($719 loan paydown + $10k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 56/100 on livability (#1,116 in NY) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A; Watch: health & safety D, schools F, crime F.
• Cincinnatus Central School District (rural): math 52% / reading 62% proficiency, ranked #287 of 590 in NY (top 49%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 18 active listings in the ZIP; 151 units permitted in Chenango County in 2024 (96 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Chenango County population projected at -26% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 4 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $29k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$39k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 35 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 7% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.