2707 County Road 2 · Smithville Flats, NY 13801

$104,000

1 bd · 1.5 ba · 141,570 sqft · SingleFamily · 35 Days on market

Built 1991 3.25 ac lot ↓ 9% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +16.1/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• Schools +4.8/10.0
• 1% rule +4.3/10.0
• Livability +2.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Enjoy this home on 3.25 acres of scenic land. Open interior with beamed ceilings, and loft. Great country setting.

Key facts

• Beamed ceilings
• Loft
• Country setting

Tags

• 3.25 ACRES
• SCENIC LAND
• OPEN INTERIOR
• BEAMED CEILINGS
• LOFT
• COUNTRY SETTING

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $104k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $54 ($643/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $97k (6.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $97k (6.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 56/100 on livability (#1,116 in NY) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A; Watch: health & safety D, schools F, crime F.
• Cincinnatus Central School District (rural): math 52% / reading 62% proficiency, ranked #287 of 590 in NY (top 49%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 18 active listings in the ZIP; 151 units permitted in Chenango County in 2024 (96 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $11k of equity ($719 loan paydown + $10k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Chenango County population projected at -26% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $29k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$39k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 35 days — a 3% lower offer ($101k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $97,180 (6.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 35 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 7% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.93% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.91%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.21%
• DSCR: 1.10
• GRM: 8.9

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 25.9%
• Equity multiple: 3.06×
• Total profit: $60,064
• Equity at exit: $93,691

10-year hold

• IRR: 22.7%
• Equity multiple: 6.98×
• Total profit: $174,219
• Equity at exit: $202,049

Cash invested: $29,120 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 13801

• Home prices YoY: 7.1%
• Active inventory: 18
• Price-to-rent: 8.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $972 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$545
• Tax from tax record: −$125 /mo · $1,505/yr
• Insurance: −$43
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$204
• Net cashflow: $54

Break-even live

Break-even rent $904

Max offer price $104,000

Occupancy floor 89%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $26,000
• Closing costs: $3,120
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 10 events

1. 2026-05-06
   status Pending 114-char remark

   Show marketing remark (114 chars)

   Enjoy this home on 3.25 acres of scenic land. Open interior with beamed ceilings, and loft. Great country setting.

2. 2026-04-06
   status Active 114-char remark

   Show marketing remark (114 chars)

   Enjoy this home on 3.25 acres of scenic land. Open interior with beamed ceilings, and loft. Great country setting.

3. 2026-03-30
   status Pending 114-char remark

   Show marketing remark (114 chars)

   Enjoy this home on 3.25 acres of scenic land. Open interior with beamed ceilings, and loft. Great country setting.

4. 2026-03-20
   listed $104,000 Active 114-char remark

   Show marketing remark (114 chars)

   Enjoy this home on 3.25 acres of scenic land. Open interior with beamed ceilings, and loft. Great country setting.

5. 2025-08-06
   historical
6. 2025-08-05
   historical
7. 2025-07-04
   price $104,900
8. 2025-06-27
   status Active
9. 2025-06-09
   historical Active Under Contract
10. 2025-05-18
    listed $114,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,505 · $125/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,632 · $136/mo
• Expected delta: +$126/yr (+$11/mo · 8.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 1/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥92°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $11,662
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,826
• − Property taxes: −$1,505
• − Insurance: −$520
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$933
• − Management: −$933
• − Depreciation: −$3,025
• Taxable loss: −$1,081
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$259
• After-tax cash flow: $902/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Cincinnatus Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3607560
• Math proficiency: 52% ▲ 9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 62% ▲ 21.00%
• Median HH income: $45,988
• Composite: 48.17/100
• National rank: #2173
• State rank: #287 of 590 in NY

Livability — Smithville Flats

• Score: 56/100
• State rank: #1116
• US rank: #22950

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A Health & safety D User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 1,533

Population outlook (Chenango County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 45,669 people
• By 2030: 43,484 · -4.8%
• By 2040: 38,774 · -15.1%
• By 2050: 34,000 · -25.6%
• By 2075: 24,637 · -46.1%
• By 2100: 16,452 · -64.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (92%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 92% Hispanic / Latino 5% Two or more races 3%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 7% Romanian 5% Iranian 3%
• Foreign-born: 1%
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Chenango

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+27.2) · D 36.4% · R 63.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -26.1pp toward R · 2008: -1.1pp · 2024: -27.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+27.2 2020: R+23.3 2016: R+28.1 2012: R+3.4 2008: R+1.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 24.55%
• Current HPI: 370.4852
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

-9.5% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-06 Pending — CNYIS
• 2026-04-06 Relisted — CNYIS
• 2026-03-30 Pending — CNYIS
• 2026-03-20 Listed $104,000 CNYIS
• 2025-08-06 Listing Removed — UNYREIS
• 2025-08-05 Listing Removed — UNYREIS
• 2025-07-04 Price Changed $104,900 UNYREIS
• 2025-06-27 Relisted — UNYREIS
• 2025-06-09 Contingent — UNYREIS
• 2025-05-18 Listed $114,900 UNYREIS

Property tax history

+10.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,505 · -3.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.