94 Libern Dr

Howardwick, TX 79119

$179,000C+

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,334 sqft · Built 1970 · SingleFamily · Active · 282 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,979/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$939
• Tax + insurance: −$191
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$415
• Net cashflow: $433/mo
• Annual: $5,196/yr
• Cap rate: 9.20%
• Cash-on-cash: 10.37%
• DSCR: 1.46
• 1% rule: 1.11%
• Cash to close: $50,120

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $179k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $433 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $179k).
• It's been on market 282 days — a 12% lower offer ($158k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $158k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#1,173 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
• Clarendon ISD (rural): math 49% / reading 54% proficiency, ranked #175 of 826 in TX (top 21%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Clarendon El (math 47% / reading 57%, grade C-, #742 of 4,322 statewide, top 19%, 215 students, 61% FRL); Clarendon J H (math 52% / reading 47%, grade C, #356 of 1,662 statewide, top 23%, 88 students, 56% FRL); Clarendon H S (math 54% / reading 64%, grade C+, #275 of 1,632 statewide, top 19%, 131 students, 33% FRL) — zoned schools at 50% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+6.2%/yr); 477 active listings in the ZIP; high-income renter base; 1 units permitted in Donley County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Donley County population projected at -26% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 6.2% rent growth), your $50k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 282 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1970 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.