94 Libern Dr · Howardwick, TX 79119

$179,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,334 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 282 Days on market

Built 1970 $134/sqft · 65% below area

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +25.8/30.0
• DSCR +8.6/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +6.1/10.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Rent growth +4.1/5.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

3 bedroom, 2 bath, 2-car garage home situated on nearly 3 acres in a beautiful setting filled with mature trees and abundant wildlife. Enjoy cozy evenings by the wood-burning stove and peace of mind with a storm cellar, fenced yard, and newer roof. Thoughtful updates throughout make this home move-in ready. Additionally, you'll have access to the Clarendon Country Club, featuring golf, swimming, and dining, just minutes away. A rare find blending comfort, charm, and convenience!

Key facts

• Fenced yard
• Newer roof
• Wood-burning stove

Tags

• WOOD-BURNING STOVE
• STORM CELLAR
• FENCED YARD
• NEWER ROOF

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $179k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $433 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $179k).
• Recommended offer: $158k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#1,173 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
• Clarendon ISD (rural): math 49% / reading 54% proficiency, ranked #175 of 826 in TX (top 21%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Clarendon El (math 47% / reading 57%, grade C-, #742 of 4,322 statewide, top 19%, 215 students, 61% FRL); Clarendon J H (math 52% / reading 47%, grade C, #356 of 1,662 statewide, top 23%, 88 students, 56% FRL); Clarendon H S (math 54% / reading 64%, grade C+, #275 of 1,632 statewide, top 19%, 131 students, 33% FRL) — zoned schools at 50% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+6.2%/yr); 477 active listings in the ZIP; high-income renter base; 1 units permitted in Donley County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Donley County population projected at -26% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 6.2% rent growth), your $50k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 282 days — a 12% lower offer ($158k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $157,520 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 282 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1970 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.11% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.20%
• Cash-on-cash: 10.37%
• DSCR: 1.46
• GRM: 7.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $515,484
• List price: $179,000
• Delta: -65.28%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 1 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 6.21% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 2.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.10×
• Total profit: $5,131
• Equity at exit: $26,689

10-year hold

• IRR: 14.9%
• Equity multiple: 2.37×
• Total profit: $68,743
• Equity at exit: $15,477

Cash invested: $50,120 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 79119

• Home prices YoY: -19.1%
• Rents YoY: 6.2%
• Active inventory: 477
• Price-to-rent: 7.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,979 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$939
• Tax from tax record: −$117 /mo · $1,401/yr
• Insurance: −$75
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$415
• Net cashflow: $433

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,430

Max offer price $179,000

Occupancy floor 73%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $534	-5% $484	+0% $433	+5% $382	+10% $332
Rent	-10% $277	-5% $355	+0% $433	+5% $511	+10% $589
Rate	-1.0pp $523	-0.5pp $479	base $433	+0.5pp $387	+1.0pp $339

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $44,750
• Closing costs: $5,370
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $179,000 Active 282 DOM
2. 2026-06-21
   days on market $179,000 Active 281 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $179,000 Active 279 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $179,000 Active 278 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $179,000 Active 277 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $179,000 Active 276 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $179,000 Active 274 DOM
8. 2026-06-12
   days on market $179,000 Active 273 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $179,000 Active 270 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $179,000 Active 269 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $179,000 Active 268 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $179,000 Active 267 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $179,000 Active 264 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $179,000 Active 263 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $179,000 Active 262 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $179,000 Active 261 DOM
17. 2025-09-12
    listed $179,000 Active 483-char remark

    Show marketing remark (483 chars)

    3 bedroom, 2 bath, 2-car garage home situated on nearly 3 acres in a beautiful setting filled with mature trees and abundant wildlife. Enjoy cozy evenings by the wood-burning stove and peace of mind with a storm cellar, fenced yard, and newer roof. Thoughtful updates throughout make this home move-in ready. Additionally, you'll have access to the Clarendon Country Club, featuring golf, swimming, and dining, just minutes away. A rare find blending comfort, charm, and convenience!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,401 · $117/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,276 · $273/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,874/yr (+$156/mo · 133.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 10/10 Extreme
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥103°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 0% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,742
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,027
• − Property taxes: −$1,401
• − Insurance: −$895
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,899
• − Management: −$1,899
• − Depreciation: −$5,207
• Taxable income: $2,413
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$579
• After-tax cash flow: $4,617/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Clarendon ISD
• NCES district ID: 4814160
• Math proficiency: 49% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 54% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $40,724
• Composite: 43.12/100
• National rank: #3082
• State rank: #175 of 826 in TX

Livability — Howardwick

• Score: 59/100
• State rank: #1173
• US rank: #20518

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Howardwick, TX
• County: Randall County · 137,351 people
• Metro: Amarillo, TX
• Population (ZIP): 24,907
• Household income: $114,432
• Rent vs Own: 32.6% rent · 67.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 272.0

Population outlook (Donley County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 3,008 people
• By 2030: 2,777 · -7.7%
• By 2040: 2,419 · -19.6%
• By 2050: 2,224 · -26.1%
• By 2075: 2,018 · -32.9%
• By 2100: 1,949 · -35.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (74%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 74% Hispanic / Latino 17% Two or more races 8% Asian 4% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 13%
• Common ancestry: Italian 4% Slovak 2% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Spanish 5% Chinese 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Donley

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+78.2) · D 10.2% · R 88.3% · Other 1.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.1pp toward R · 2008: -64.1pp · 2024: -78.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+78.2 2020: R+75.2 2016: R+70.9 2012: R+69.2 2008: R+64.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -39.08%
• Current HPI: 165.3226
• Rent YoY: ▲ 6.21%
• Metro: Amarillo, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2025-09-12 Listed $179,000 AARMLS

Property tax history

+3.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,401 · +35.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.